{ "account_feeds": { "a1": { "feed_at": "2026-10-12T22:15:46.583750+00:00", "newest_stretch_end": "2026-10-02T13:55:43+00:00", "state": "idle" }, "a2": { "feed_at": "2026-10-13T10:29:13+00:00", "newest_stretch_end": "2026-10-09T07:35:59+00:00", "state": "idle" }, "a3": { "feed_at": "2026-10-13T10:26:09+00:00", "newest_stretch_end": "2026-10-12T13:12:24+00:00", "state": "fresh" }, "a4": { "feed_at": "2026-10-13T10:30:14+00:00", "newest_stretch_end": "2026-10-06T22:48:16+00:00", "state": "idle" } }, "api_price_per_mtok": { "claude-fable-5-1": { "cache_read": 0.25, "cache_write": 12.5, "cache_write_1h": 20.0, "class_weight": { "cache_read": 0.0, "cache_write": 1.0, "input": 1.0, "output": 1.0 }, "input": 10, "meter_weight": 1.0, "output": 50 }, "claude-haiku-4-5": { "cache_read": 0.1, "cache_write": 1.25, "cache_write_1h": 2.0, "class_weight": { "cache_read": 0.0, "cache_write": 1.0, "input": 1.0, "output": 1.0 }, "input": 1, "meter_weight": 1.0, "meter_weight_source": "assumed, not 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"announcement": null, "at": "2026-10-11T21:43:47.162000+00:00", "at_source": "first_turn", "before_from": "2026-09-29T18:25:18.212000+00:00", "change_pct": -42.8, "family": "haiku-5-5", "first_seen_account": "a3", "first_seen_stretch_end": "2026-10-12T09:53:54+00:00", "interval_excludes_no_change": true, "interval_pct": [ -51.5, -32.5 ], "joint_fit": { "accounts_combined": [ "a2", "a3" ], "base_family": "haiku", "bootstrap": 200, "family": "haiku-5-5", "five_hour_limit_change_interval_pct": [ -79.7, -14.4 ], "five_hour_limit_change_pct": -30.6, "log_residual_sd": 0.8563, "n_mixed_after": 0, "per_account": { "a1": { "combined": false, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 19, "new_family_share_median": null }, "a2": { "combined": true, "five_hour_limit_change_pct": -70.7, "n_after": 6, "n_before": 18, "new_family_share_median": 0.0 }, "a3": { "combined": true, "five_hour_limit_change_pct": -0.9, "n_after": 3, "n_before": 63, "new_family_share_median": 0.0 }, "a4": { "combined": false, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 12, "new_family_share_median": null } }, "plan_wide": null, "rate_check": { "list_price_ratio": 0.1, "plausible_band": [ 0.05, 0.2 ], "price_class": "input", "rate_relative_interval": [ 0.05, 20.0 ], "reason": null, "state": "passed" }, "rate_relative_interval": [ 0.05, 20.0 ], "rate_relative_to_base": 0.05, "reason": "span test: the new family's share of the work varies too little to separate its rate from the limit change: the rate's 95% interval runs 0.05x to 20.00x its base family's, wider than 1.5x end to end or against a search bound; mixing test: only 0 pooled stretches after the candidate mixed the new family at a share of 0.2 to 0.8 of the work, and the rate is identified only by mixing; 3 are needed", "rounding_sd": 0.0617, "scatter_sd": 0.2143, "separable": false, "state": "measuring", "times_opus": 0.0184, "times_opus_interval": [ 0.0184, 7.3486 ], "unclaimed_share": { "a2": { "capped_with": [ "a4" ], "interval": [ 0.04, 0.92 ], "n": 24, "n_with_unclaimed": 14, "share": 0.4 }, "a4": { "capped_with": [ "a2" ], "interval": [ 0.0, 0.6 ], "n": 12, "n_with_unclaimed": 10, "share": 0.1 } } }, "per_account": { "a1": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 0, "n_after_reset_unverified": 0, "n_after_unpriced": 0, "n_before": 19, "n_before_reset_unverified": 19, "n_before_unpriced": 0 }, "a2": { "change_pct": -71.4, "combined": true, "df": 22, "interval_pct": [ -77.9, -62.9 ], "log_ratio": -1.2509125180536351, "n_after": 6, "n_after_reset_unverified": 1, "n_after_unpriced": 0, "n_before": 18, "n_before_reset_unverified": 10, "n_before_unpriced": 0, "se": 0.12522790633849878, "weight": 0.4425 }, "a3": { "change_pct": -0.9, "combined": true, "df": 64, "interval_pct": [ -20.7, 23.8 ], "log_ratio": -0.009276542446302827, "n_after": 3, "n_after_reset_unverified": 0, "n_after_unpriced": 0, "n_before": 63, "n_before_reset_unverified": 19, "n_before_unpriced": 0, "se": 0.1115636738044703, "weight": 0.5575 }, "a4": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 0, "n_after_reset_unverified": 0, "n_after_unpriced": 0, "n_before": 12, "n_before_reset_unverified": 5, "n_before_unpriced": 0 } }, "state": "measured", "unclaimed_share": { "a2": { "capped_with": [ "a4" ], "interval": [ 0.04, 0.92 ], "n": 24, "n_with_unclaimed": 14, "share": 0.4 }, "a4": { "capped_with": [ "a2" ], "interval": [ 0.0, 0.6 ], "n": 12, "n_with_unclaimed": 10, "share": 0.1 } } } ], "method": "candidates are each model family's first use across every account; the candidate instant is the family's first turn where the stretch records it (`at_source` first_turn), else the start of the stretch that holds it (stretch_start). Per account, accepted stretches (reset-verified or not, counted) are valued in credits and split at the candidate; the before side starts at the previous boundary (the 14 September weekly change or an earlier candidate) and the after side ends at the next one, and a stretch that spans a boundary is on neither side. Each account's change is the ratio of the Huber M-estimates of its log credits per 1% on the two sides, each stretch's variance the robust scatter (median absolute deviation) plus its own whole-percent rounding variance, so a stretch with work the transcripts missed or the meter did not count weighs less the further it lands; a 95% t interval on the logs uses the scatter pooled over both sides. A stretch's credits include the account's fitted share (`unclaimed_share`, 0 to 1) of the work no login claims on the pooled projects root in its span. Accounts with at least 5 stretches before and 1 after are combined as a weighted mean of log ratios, weights 1 / se squared. The state is measuring while the interval includes no change, provisional once it excludes it, and measured once it also has a half-width of 10 points or less (`change_state`). `joint_fit` is the candidate family's rate fitted jointly with the five-hour limit change (`joint_rate_fit`); `five_hour_on_meters` reads it to decide the change's scope. `announcement` is reference metadata and changes no figure.", "thresholds": { "measured_half_width_pct": 10.0, "min_before": 5 }, "unit": "credits per 1% of the five-hour meter" }, "as_of": "2026-10-12T13:12:24+00:00", "as_of_source": { "measured_rate_fits": "2026-10-12T13:12:24+00:00", "rule": "the newest stretch end in the pure-family cluster behind window_credits and the newest stretch behind the pooled per-model fits, whichever is later; null where neither has a stretch to date", "window_cluster": "2026-09-21T15:05:39+00:00" }, "derivation": "credits", "effort_cache_mix": { "claude-fable-5-1": { "high": { "cache_read_share": 0.715, "cold_cache_runs": 2, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "low": { "cache_read_share": 0.8214, "cold_cache_runs": 1, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "max": { "cache_read_share": 0.5995, "cold_cache_runs": 5, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 6 }, "medium": { "cache_read_share": 0.7555, "cold_cache_runs": 2, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "xhigh": { "cache_read_share": 0.5606, "cold_cache_runs": 2, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 } }, "claude-opus-5": { "high": { "cache_read_share": 0.6099, "cold_cache_runs": 6, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "low": { "cache_read_share": 0.6898, "cold_cache_runs": 2, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "max": { "cache_read_share": 0.6844, "cold_cache_runs": 7, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "medium": { "cache_read_share": 0.7288, "cold_cache_runs": 1, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "xhigh": { "cache_read_share": 0.5432, "cold_cache_runs": 3, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 } }, "claude-opus-5-5": { "high": { "cache_read_share": 0.6964, "cold_cache_runs": 1, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "low": { "cache_read_share": 0.7956, "cold_cache_runs": 1, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "max": { "cache_read_share": 0.22, "cold_cache_runs": 1, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "medium": { "cache_read_share": 0.7281, "cold_cache_runs": 1, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "xhigh": { "cache_read_share": 0.4929, "cold_cache_runs": 1, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 } }, "claude-sonnet-5": { "high": { "cache_read_share": 0.7562, "cold_cache_runs": 2, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "low": { "cache_read_share": 0.9147, "cold_cache_runs": 4, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "max": { "cache_read_share": 0.7005, "cold_cache_runs": 7, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "medium": { "cache_read_share": 0.8043, "cold_cache_runs": 3, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "xhigh": { "cache_read_share": 0.7056, "cold_cache_runs": 2, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 } }, "claude-sonnet-5-5": { "high": { "cache_read_share": 0.7528, "cold_cache_runs": 2, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "low": { "cache_read_share": 0.7884, "cold_cache_runs": 2, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "max": { "cache_read_share": 0.2559, "cold_cache_runs": 1, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "medium": { "cache_read_share": 0.8243, "cold_cache_runs": 1, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 }, "xhigh": { "cache_read_share": 0.6944, "cold_cache_runs": 1, "note": "share of the cell's own run tokens that were cache reads; a cold run writes cache where a warm one reads it", "runs": 7 } } }, "effort_credits": { "claude-fable-5-1": { "high": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 34313, 66364 ], "status": null, "value": 61396 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.09, 0.23 ], "status": null, "value": 0.18 }, "rate_source": "measured", "runs": 7 }, "low": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 12015, 23236 ], "status": null, "value": 21496 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.03, 0.08 ], "status": null, "value": 0.06 }, "rate_source": "measured", "runs": 7 }, "max": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 174928, 315824 ], "status": null, "value": 292179 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.44, 1.09 ], "status": null, "value": 0.84 }, "rate_source": "measured", "runs": 6 }, "medium": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 17595, 34028 ], "status": null, "value": 31481 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.04, 0.12 ], "status": null, "value": 0.09 }, "rate_source": "measured", "runs": 7 }, "xhigh": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 98593, 190695 ], "status": null, "value": 176418 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.25, 0.66 ], "status": null, "value": 0.51 }, "rate_source": "measured", "runs": 7 } }, "claude-opus-5": { "high": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 28547, 28547 ], "status": null, "value": 28547 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.07, 0.1 ], "status": null, "value": 0.08 }, "rate_source": "reference", "runs": 7 }, "low": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 10228, 10228 ], "status": null, "value": 10228 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.03, 0.04 ], "status": null, "value": 0.03 }, "rate_source": "reference", "runs": 7 }, "max": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 62955, 62955 ], "status": null, "value": 62955 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.16, 0.22 ], "status": null, "value": 0.18 }, "rate_source": "reference", "runs": 7 }, "medium": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 14305, 14305 ], "status": null, "value": 14305 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.04, 0.05 ], "status": null, "value": 0.04 }, "rate_source": "reference", "runs": 7 }, "xhigh": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 42558, 42558 ], "status": null, "value": 42558 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.11, 0.15 ], "status": null, "value": 0.12 }, "rate_source": "reference", "runs": 7 } }, "claude-opus-5-5": { "high": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 15513, 15513 ], "status": null, "value": 15513 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.04, 0.05 ], "status": null, "value": 0.04 }, "rate_source": "list_price_until_separable", "runs": 7 }, "low": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 7476, 7476 ], "status": null, "value": 7476 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.02, 0.03 ], "status": null, "value": 0.02 }, "rate_source": "list_price_until_separable", "runs": 7 }, "max": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 140785, 140785 ], "status": null, "value": 140785 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.35, 0.49 ], "status": null, "value": 0.4 }, "rate_source": "list_price_until_separable", "runs": 7 }, "medium": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 13006, 13006 ], "status": null, "value": 13006 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.03, 0.05 ], "status": null, "value": 0.04 }, "rate_source": "list_price_until_separable", "runs": 7 }, "xhigh": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 41630, 41630 ], "status": null, "value": 41630 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.1, 0.14 ], "status": null, "value": 0.12 }, "rate_source": "list_price_until_separable", "runs": 7 } }, "claude-sonnet-5": { "high": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 8542, 11141 ], "status": null, "value": 9664 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.02, 0.04 ], "status": null, "value": 0.03 }, "rate_source": "measured", "runs": 7 }, "low": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 2548, 3323 ], "status": null, "value": 2882 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.01, 0.01 ], "status": null, "value": 0.01 }, "rate_source": "measured", "runs": 7 }, "max": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 40298, 52558 ], "status": null, "value": 45588 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.1, 0.18 ], "status": null, "value": 0.13 }, "rate_source": "measured", "runs": 7 }, "medium": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 3996, 5212 ], "status": null, "value": 4521 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.01, 0.02 ], "status": null, "value": 0.01 }, "rate_source": "measured", "runs": 7 }, "xhigh": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 11041, 14399 ], "status": null, "value": 12490 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.03, 0.05 ], "status": null, "value": 0.04 }, "rate_source": "measured", "runs": 7 } }, "claude-sonnet-5-5": { "high": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 3881, 3881 ], "status": null, "value": 3881 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.01, 0.01 ], "status": null, "value": 0.01 }, "rate_source": "list_price_until_separable", "runs": 7 }, "low": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 3247, 3247 ], "status": null, "value": 3247 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.01, 0.01 ], "status": null, "value": 0.01 }, "rate_source": "list_price_until_separable", "runs": 7 }, "max": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 55793, 55793 ], "status": null, "value": 55793 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.14, 0.19 ], "status": null, "value": 0.16 }, "rate_source": "list_price_until_separable", "runs": 7 }, "medium": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 3177, 3177 ], "status": null, "value": 3177 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.01, 0.01 ], "status": null, "value": 0.01 }, "rate_source": "list_price_until_separable", "runs": 7 }, "xhigh": { "derivation": "credits", "median_credits": { "interval": [ 7806, 7806 ], "status": null, "value": 7806 }, "note": "the cell's own runs priced at the family's measured credit rate, cache writes at the input rate and cache reads at the published weight; percent_of_window is that median over the measured five-hour window", "percent_of_window": { "interval": [ 0.02, 0.03 ], "status": null, "value": 0.02 }, "rate_source": "list_price_until_separable", "runs": 7 } } }, "fable_interval": { "input": 1.9772, "input_high": 2.1372, "input_low": 1.8416, "method": "one set of per-token rates shared by every account and side of 14 September, with one credits-per-1% scale per account and side, fitted over the clean stretches (history/model-rates.json measured_rates.pooled_fit); the interval is its 80% bootstrap interval, resampling stretches within each group.", "output_ratio": [ 5 ], "solved": { "fable_heavy_share": 0.5, "input_high": 1.3737, "input_low": 0.6006, "method": "solved per Fable-heavy stretch (Fable over 50% of the tokens the meter charges for) against the measured window; the interval runs from the lowest per-account p25 at output 5x input to the highest per-account p25 at output 3x. Both edges are a p25 because the solve is inflated wherever the meter counts machines the transcripts never saw.", "output_ratio": [ 3, 5 ], "per_account": { "a1": { "output_3x": { "median": 3.7829, "n": 22, "p25": 1.3737 }, "output_5x": { "median": 2.8892, "n": 22, "p25": 1.0758 } }, "a2": { "output_3x": { "median": 1.0675, "n": 18, "p25": 0.8574 }, "output_5x": { "median": 0.8469, "n": 18, "p25": 0.6963 } }, "a3": { "output_3x": { "median": 1.1094, "n": 36, "p25": 0.9816 }, "output_5x": { "median": 0.854, "n": 36, "p25": 0.753 } }, "a4": { "output_3x": { "median": 0.9473, "n": 5, "p25": 0.6658 }, "output_5x": { "median": 0.7021, "n": 5, "p25": 0.6006 } } }, "status": "interval, not yet separable", "times_opus": [ 0.9, 2.06 ], "unresolved": null, "window_credits_per_pct": 348936 }, "status": "measured by one fit pooled across every account", "times_opus": [ 2.76, 3.21 ], "unresolved": null }, "five_hour_on_meters": { "candidates": [ { "accounts_combined": [ "a1" ], "after_until": 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"windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": [ -21.5, 27.5 ], "windows_per_week_change_pct": -0.1, "windows_per_week_ratio": 0.9991, "windows_per_week_ratio_bootstrap_interval": [ 0.8328, 1.1594 ], "windows_per_week_ratio_interval": [ 0.7852, 1.2749 ], "withheld_reason": "not measurable: dated before the 14 September weekly change, which stands for everything before it" }, { "accounts_combined": [ "a1" ], "after_until": "2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00", "announcement": null, "applies": false, "at": "2026-08-28T03:00:35.605000+00:00", "at_source": "first_turn", "before_from": "2026-08-21T17:21:44.540000+00:00", "certified_on": [], "change_pct": null, "family": "fable", "first_seen_account": "a1", "first_seen_stretch_end": "2026-08-28T03:30:02.392404+00:00", "headline": { "change_pct": -7.6, "interval_pct": [ -24.4, 12.0 ], "metric": "windows_per_week" }, "interval_excludes_no_change": false, "interval_pct": null, "joint_fit": { "accounts_combined": [], "base_family": "opus", "bootstrap": 200, "family": "fable", "five_hour_limit_change_interval_pct": null, "five_hour_limit_change_pct": null, "log_residual_sd": null, "n_mixed_after": null, "per_account": { "a1": { "combined": false, "n_after": 37, "n_before": 0, "new_family_share_median": 0.61 }, "a2": { "combined": false, "n_after": 78, "n_before": 0, "new_family_share_median": 0.086 }, "a3": { "combined": false, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 0, "new_family_share_median": null }, "a4": { "combined": false, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 0, "new_family_share_median": null } }, "plan_wide": null, "rate_check": null, "rate_relative_interval": null, "rate_relative_to_base": null, "reason": "no stretch after the candidate on an account with a before side", "rounding_sd": null, "scatter_sd": null, "separable": false, "state": "measuring", "times_opus": null, "times_opus_interval": null, "unclaimed_share": { "a2": { "capped_with": [], "interval": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "n": 78, "n_with_unclaimed": 1, "share": 0.0 } } }, "measurable": false, "method": "direct_on_both_meters", "per_account": { "a1": { "after_until": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "before_from": "2026-08-21T17:21:44.540000+00:00", "combined": true, "n_after": 58, "n_before": 24, "n_straddling": 2, "ratio_after_over_before": 0.9244, "ratio_interval": [ 0.756, 1.1196 ], "raw_windows_per_week_after": 6.1739, "raw_windows_per_week_before": 7.3088, "readings": { "five_hour_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_interval_pct": [ -10.7, 32.3 ], "five_hour_window_change_pct": 8.2, "weekly_cap_change_pct": 0.0 }, "weekly_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_pct": 0.0, "weekly_cap_change_interval_pct": [ -24.4, 12.0 ], "weekly_cap_change_pct": -7.6 } }, "weight": 1.0, "windows_per_week_after": 6.1149, "windows_per_week_before": 6.6153, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": [ -24.4, 12.0 ], "windows_per_week_change_pct": -7.6 }, "a2": { "after_until": "2026-09-13T22:45:34+00:00", "before_from": "2026-08-21T17:21:44.540000+00:00", "combined": false, "n_after": 34, "n_before": 0, "n_straddling": 0, "ratio_after_over_before": null, "ratio_interval": null, "raw_windows_per_week_after": 6.3947, "windows_per_week_after": 5.2527, "windows_per_week_before": null, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": null, "windows_per_week_change_pct": null }, "a3": { "after_until": "2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00", "before_from": "2026-08-21T17:21:44.540000+00:00", "combined": false, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 0, "n_straddling": 0, "ratio_after_over_before": null, "ratio_interval": null, "windows_per_week_after": null, "windows_per_week_before": null, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": null, "windows_per_week_change_pct": null }, "a4": { "after_until": "2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00", "before_from": "2026-08-21T17:21:44.540000+00:00", "combined": false, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 0, "n_straddling": 0, "ratio_after_over_before": null, "ratio_interval": null, "windows_per_week_after": null, "windows_per_week_before": null, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": null, "windows_per_week_change_pct": null } }, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a1" ], "estimator": "the combined windows-per-week ratio", "reason": "the change rests on one account (a1); a plan limit change applies to every account at once", "state": "failed", "without": {} }, "readings": { "five_hour_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_interval_pct": [ -10.7, 32.3 ], "five_hour_window_change_pct": 8.2, "weekly_cap_change_pct": 0.0 }, "weekly_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_pct": 0.0, "weekly_cap_change_interval_pct": [ -24.4, 12.0 ], "weekly_cap_change_pct": -7.6 } }, "scope": { "five_hour_limit_change_interval_pct": null, "five_hour_limit_change_pct": null, "joint_fit_state": "measuring", "reason": "no stretch after the candidate on an account with a before side", "separable": false, "state": "undetermined", "weekly_limit_change_interval_pct": null, "weekly_limit_change_pct": null }, "state": "measuring", "weekly_change": { "accounts_combined": [], "certified": false, "change_pct": null, "interval_excludes_no_change": false, "interval_pct": null, "per_account": { "a1": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 67, "n_before": 0 }, "a2": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 138, "n_before": 0 }, "a3": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 0 }, "a4": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 0 } }, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [], "estimator": "the combined change in credits per 1% of the seven-day meter, each account against itself, weights 1 / se squared", "reason": "no combined change to test", "state": "untested", "without": {} }, "unit": "credits per 1% of the seven-day meter" }, "window_change": { "accounts_combined": [], "certified": false, "change_pct": null, "interval_excludes_no_change": false, "interval_pct": null, "per_account": { "a1": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 37, "n_before": 0 }, "a2": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 78, "n_before": 0 }, "a3": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 0 }, "a4": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 0 } }, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [], "estimator": "the combined change in credits per 1% of the five-hour meter, each account against itself, weights 1 / se squared", "reason": "no combined change to test", "state": "untested", "without": {} }, "unit": "credits per 1% of the five-hour meter" }, "windows_per_week_change_excludes_no_change": false, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": [ -24.4, 12.0 ], "windows_per_week_change_pct": -7.6, "windows_per_week_ratio": 0.9244, "windows_per_week_ratio_bootstrap_interval": [ 0.7986, 1.1352 ], "windows_per_week_ratio_interval": [ 0.756, 1.1196 ], "withheld_reason": "not measurable: dated before the 14 September weekly change, which stands for everything before it" }, { "accounts_combined": [ "a1", "a2", "a3" ], "after_until": "2026-09-29T18:25:18.212000+00:00", "announcement": { "also_quoted": "In addition to the price drop, we're increasing five-hour usage limits on Pro, Max, Team, and seat-based Enterprise plans.", "announced_change_pct": 20, "date": "2026-09-22", "quote": "We're also raising Pro and Max users' 5-hour limit by 20%.", "scope": "five_hour", "source": "Anthropic email to Max subscribers (the figure); anthropic.com/news/claude-opus-5-5 (the increase, no figure); MacRumors 2026-09-22 (the date)" }, "applies": true, "at": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "at_source": "first_turn", "before_from": "2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00", "certified_on": [ "five_hour_limit", "weekly_limit" ], "change_pct": 19.6, "family": "opus-5-5", "first_seen_account": "a1", "first_seen_stretch_end": "2026-09-23T08:26:32+00:00", "headline": { "change_pct": 19.6, "interval_pct": [ 10.8, 29.1 ], "metric": "five_hour_limit" }, "interval_excludes_no_change": true, "interval_pct": [ 10.8, 29.1 ], "joint_fit": { "accounts_combined": [ "a1", "a2", "a3" ], "base_family": "opus", "bootstrap": 200, "family": "opus-5-5", "five_hour_limit_change_interval_pct": [ 18.3, 70.4 ], "five_hour_limit_change_pct": 46.3, "log_residual_sd": 0.1661, "n_mixed_after": 14, "per_account": { "a1": { "combined": true, "five_hour_limit_change_pct": 56.9, "n_after": 9, "n_before": 45, "new_family_share_median": 0.653 }, "a2": { "combined": true, "five_hour_limit_change_pct": 40.1, "n_after": 13, "n_before": 41, "new_family_share_median": 0.871 }, "a3": { "combined": true, "five_hour_limit_change_pct": 46.0, "n_after": 13, "n_before": 52, "new_family_share_median": 0.899 }, "a4": { "combined": false, "n_after": 13, "n_before": 0, "new_family_share_median": 0.189 } }, "plan_wide": null, "rate_check": { "list_price_ratio": 0.8, "plausible_band": [ 0.4, 1.6 ], "price_class": "input", "rate_relative_interval": [ 0.8222, 1.3267 ], "reason": null, "state": "passed" }, "rate_relative_interval": [ 0.8222, 1.3267 ], "rate_relative_to_base": 1.0994, "reason": "span test: the new family's share of the work varies too little to separate its rate from the limit change: the rate's 95% interval runs 0.82x to 1.33x its base family's, wider than 1.5x end to end or against a search bound", "rounding_sd": 0.0502, "scatter_sd": 0.1713, "separable": false, "state": "measuring", "times_opus": 1.0994, "times_opus_interval": [ 0.8222, 1.3267 ], "unclaimed_share": { "a2": { "capped_with": [ "a4" ], "interval": [ 0.0, 1.0 ], "n": 54, "n_with_unclaimed": 4, "share": 0.0 }, "a4": { "capped_with": [ "a2" ], "interval": [ 0.0, 1.0 ], "n": 13, "n_with_unclaimed": 1, "share": 1.0 } } }, "measurable": true, "method": "direct_on_both_meters", "per_account": { "a1": { "after_until": "2026-09-29T18:25:18.212000+00:00", "before_from": "2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00", "combined": true, "n_after": 11, "n_before": 31, "n_straddling": 1, 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"weekly_cap_change_interval_pct": [ -27.0, 61.4 ], "weekly_cap_change_pct": 4.5 } }, "weight": 0.3123, "windows_per_week_after": 5.0442, "windows_per_week_before": 4.8257, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": [ -27.0, 61.4 ], "windows_per_week_change_pct": 4.5 }, "a4": { "after_until": "2026-09-29T18:25:18.212000+00:00", "before_from": "2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00", "combined": false, "n_after": 11, "n_before": 0, "n_straddling": 0, "ratio_after_over_before": null, "ratio_interval": null, "raw_windows_per_week_after": 4.0303, "windows_per_week_after": 4.0288, "windows_per_week_before": null, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": null, "windows_per_week_change_pct": null } }, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2", "a3" ], "estimator": "the combined change in credits per 1% of the five-hour meter, each account against itself, weights 1 / se squared", "reason": null, "state": "passed", "without": { "a1": { "change_pct": 12.7, "holds": true, "interval_pct": [ 2.9, 23.5 ] }, "a2": { "change_pct": 28.9, "holds": true, "interval_pct": [ 15.9, 43.3 ] }, "a3": { "change_pct": 20.1, "holds": true, "interval_pct": [ 10.1, 31.1 ] } } }, "readings": { "five_hour_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_interval_pct": [ -31.9, 46.7 ], "five_hour_window_change_pct": 2.5, "weekly_cap_change_pct": 0.0 }, "weekly_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_pct": 0.0, "weekly_cap_change_interval_pct": [ -31.8, 46.9 ], "weekly_cap_change_pct": -2.4 } }, "scope": { "five_hour_limit_change_interval_pct": null, "five_hour_limit_change_pct": null, "joint_fit_state": "measuring", "reason": "span test: the new family's share of the work varies too little to separate its rate from the limit change: the rate's 95% interval runs 0.82x to 1.33x its base family's, wider than 1.5x end to end or against a search bound", "separable": false, "state": "undetermined", "weekly_limit_change_interval_pct": null, "weekly_limit_change_pct": null }, "state": "measured", "weekly_change": { "accounts_combined": [ "a1", "a2", "a3" ], "certified": true, "change_pct": 17.5, "interval_excludes_no_change": true, "interval_pct": [ 6.0, 30.3 ], "per_account": { "a1": { "change_pct": 26.7, "combined": true, "days_after": 3, "days_before": 5, "df": 6, "interval_pct": [ -2.5, 64.8 ], "level_after": 1485633, "level_before": 1172138, "log_ratio": 0.237011, "n_after": 20, "n_before": 94, "se": 0.107858, "weight": 0.2108 }, "a2": { "change_pct": 9.0, "combined": true, "days_after": 5, "days_before": 7, "df": 10, "interval_pct": [ -9.0, 30.6 ], "level_after": 1338133, "level_before": 1227335, "log_ratio": 0.08643, "n_after": 27, "n_before": 94, "se": 0.081041, "weight": 0.3734 }, "a3": { "change_pct": 20.9, "combined": true, "days_after": 2, "days_before": 4, "df": 4, "interval_pct": [ -2.0, 49.1 ], "level_after": 1459935, "level_before": 1207397, "log_ratio": 0.189925, "n_after": 16, "n_before": 97, "se": 0.076804, "weight": 0.4158 }, "a4": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 29, "n_before": 0 } }, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2", "a3" ], "estimator": "the combined change in credits per 1% of the seven-day meter, each account against itself, weights 1 / se squared", "reason": null, "state": "passed", "without": { "a1": { "change_pct": 15.1, "holds": true, "interval_pct": [ 2.2, 29.8 ] }, "a2": { "change_pct": 22.8, "holds": true, "interval_pct": [ 6.9, 41.2 ] }, "a3": { "change_pct": 15.1, "holds": true, "interval_pct": [ 0.3, 32.1 ] } } }, "unit": "credits per 1% of the seven-day meter" }, "window_change": { "accounts_combined": [ "a1", "a2", "a3" ], "certified": true, "change_pct": 19.6, "interval_excludes_no_change": true, "interval_pct": [ 10.8, 29.1 ], "per_account": { "a1": { "change_pct": 38.1, "combined": true, "interval_pct": [ 19.6, 59.4 ], "n_after": 9, "n_before": 45, "weight": 0.2923 }, "a2": { "change_pct": 10.3, "combined": true, "interval_pct": [ -1.4, 23.4 ], "n_after": 13, "n_before": 41, "weight": 0.4795 }, "a3": { "change_pct": 18.0, "combined": true, "interval_pct": [ 0.4, 38.7 ], "n_after": 13, "n_before": 52, "weight": 0.2282 }, "a4": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 13, "n_before": 0 } }, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2", "a3" ], "estimator": "the combined change in credits per 1% of the five-hour meter, each account against itself, weights 1 / se squared", "reason": null, "state": "passed", "without": { "a1": { "change_pct": 12.7, "holds": true, "interval_pct": [ 2.9, 23.5 ] }, "a2": { "change_pct": 28.9, "holds": true, "interval_pct": [ 15.9, 43.3 ] }, "a3": { "change_pct": 20.1, "holds": true, "interval_pct": [ 10.1, 31.1 ] } } }, "unit": "credits per 1% of the five-hour meter" }, "windows_per_week_change_excludes_no_change": false, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": [ -31.8, 46.9 ], "windows_per_week_change_pct": -2.4, "windows_per_week_ratio": 0.9759, "windows_per_week_ratio_bootstrap_interval": [ 0.8103, 1.127 ], "windows_per_week_ratio_interval": [ 0.6815, 1.4694 ], "withheld_reason": null }, { "accounts_combined": [ "a1", "a2", "a3", "a4" ], "after_until": "2026-10-11T21:43:47.162000+00:00", "announcement": null, "applies": false, "at": "2026-09-29T18:25:18.212000+00:00", "at_source": "first_turn", "before_from": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "certified_on": [], "change_pct": 1.1, "family": "sonnet-5-5", "first_seen_account": "a3", "first_seen_stretch_end": "2026-09-29T18:34:40+00:00", "headline": { "change_pct": -2.0, "interval_pct": [ -9.3, 5.9 ], "metric": "weekly_limit" }, "interval_excludes_no_change": false, "interval_pct": [ -4.3, 6.9 ], "joint_fit": { "accounts_combined": [ "a1", "a2", "a3", "a4" ], "base_family": "sonnet", "bootstrap": 200, "family": "sonnet-5-5", "five_hour_limit_change_interval_pct": [ -1.4, 15.3 ], "five_hour_limit_change_pct": 7.7, "log_residual_sd": 0.2954, "n_mixed_after": 5, "per_account": { "a1": { "combined": true, "five_hour_limit_change_pct": 24.9, "n_after": 19, "n_before": 9, "new_family_share_median": 0.0 }, "a2": { "combined": true, "five_hour_limit_change_pct": 8.9, "n_after": 18, "n_before": 13, "new_family_share_median": 0.045 }, "a3": { "combined": true, "five_hour_limit_change_pct": 6.2, "n_after": 63, "n_before": 13, "new_family_share_median": 0.0 }, "a4": { "combined": true, "five_hour_limit_change_pct": -7.3, "n_after": 12, "n_before": 13, "new_family_share_median": 0.069 } }, "plan_wide": null, "rate_check": { "list_price_ratio": 1.0, "plausible_band": [ 0.5, 2.0 ], "price_class": "input", "rate_relative_interval": [ 1.0805, 2.3782 ], "reason": null, "state": "passed" }, "rate_relative_interval": [ 1.0805, 2.3782 ], "rate_relative_to_base": 1.5682, "reason": "span test: the new family's share of the work varies too little to separate its rate from the limit change: the rate's 95% interval runs 1.08x to 2.38x its base family's, wider than 1.5x end to end or against a search bound", "rounding_sd": 0.0645, "scatter_sd": 0.1484, "separable": false, "state": "measuring", "times_opus": 0.7881, "times_opus_interval": [ 0.5431, 1.1953 ], "unclaimed_share": { "a2": { "capped_with": [ "a4" ], "interval": [ 0.16, 1.0 ], "n": 31, "n_with_unclaimed": 16, "share": 0.5 }, "a4": { "capped_with": [ "a2" ], "interval": [ 0.0, 0.8 ], "n": 25, "n_with_unclaimed": 11, "share": 0.5 } } }, "measurable": true, "method": "direct_on_both_meters", "per_account": { "a1": { "after_until": "2026-10-11T21:43:47.162000+00:00", "before_from": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "combined": true, "n_after": 27, "n_before": 12, "n_straddling": 1, "ratio_after_over_before": 0.9464, "ratio_interval": [ 0.5083, 1.7942 ], "raw_windows_per_week_after": 4.4667, "raw_windows_per_week_before": 4.7826, "readings": { "five_hour_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_interval_pct": [ -44.3, 96.7 ], "five_hour_window_change_pct": 5.7, "weekly_cap_change_pct": 0.0 }, "weekly_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_pct": 0.0, "weekly_cap_change_interval_pct": [ -49.2, 79.4 ], "weekly_cap_change_pct": -5.4 } }, "weight": 0.1882, "windows_per_week_after": 4.4288, "windows_per_week_before": 4.6797, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": [ -49.2, 79.4 ], "windows_per_week_change_pct": -5.4 }, "a2": { "after_until": "2026-10-11T21:43:47.162000+00:00", "before_from": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "combined": true, "n_after": 44, "n_before": 27, "n_straddling": 1, "ratio_after_over_before": 1.0874, "ratio_interval": [ 0.6324, 1.9015 ], "raw_windows_per_week_after": 4.8696, "raw_windows_per_week_before": 4.381, "readings": { "five_hour_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_interval_pct": [ -47.4, 58.1 ], "five_hour_window_change_pct": -8.0, "weekly_cap_change_pct": 0.0 }, "weekly_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_pct": 0.0, "weekly_cap_change_interval_pct": [ -36.8, 90.2 ], "weekly_cap_change_pct": 8.7 } }, "weight": 0.247, "windows_per_week_after": 4.5807, "windows_per_week_before": 4.2127, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": [ -36.8, 90.2 ], "windows_per_week_change_pct": 8.7 }, "a3": { "after_until": "2026-10-11T21:43:47.162000+00:00", "before_from": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "combined": true, "n_after": 41, "n_before": 7, "n_straddling": 1, "ratio_after_over_before": 0.9774, "ratio_interval": [ 0.5974, 1.5 ], "raw_windows_per_week_after": 7.3023, "raw_windows_per_week_before": 7.4118, "readings": { "five_hour_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_interval_pct": [ -33.3, 67.4 ], "five_hour_window_change_pct": 2.3, "weekly_cap_change_pct": 0.0 }, "weekly_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_pct": 0.0, "weekly_cap_change_interval_pct": [ -40.3, 50.0 ], "weekly_cap_change_pct": -2.3 } }, "weight": 0.3532, "windows_per_week_after": 4.9301, "windows_per_week_before": 5.0442, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": [ -40.3, 50.0 ], "windows_per_week_change_pct": -2.3 }, "a4": { "after_until": "2026-10-11T21:43:47.162000+00:00", "before_from": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "combined": true, "n_after": 20, "n_before": 11, "n_straddling": 0, "ratio_after_over_before": 1.1014, "ratio_interval": [ 0.6232, 2.0477 ], "raw_windows_per_week_after": 5.2593, "raw_windows_per_week_before": 4.0303, "readings": { "five_hour_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_interval_pct": [ -51.2, 60.5 ], "five_hour_window_change_pct": -9.2, "weekly_cap_change_pct": 0.0 }, "weekly_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_pct": 0.0, "weekly_cap_change_interval_pct": [ -37.7, 104.8 ], "weekly_cap_change_pct": 10.1 } }, "weight": 0.2116, "windows_per_week_after": 4.4373, "windows_per_week_before": 4.0288, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": [ -37.7, 104.8 ], "windows_per_week_change_pct": 10.1 } }, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2", "a3", "a4" ], "estimator": "the combined change in credits per 1% of the seven-day meter, each account against itself, weights 1 / se squared", "reason": "without a1 it reads -3.5% [-11.9, 5.7]; without a2 it reads -1.5% [-9.3, 6.9]; without a3 it reads -3.6% [-14.1, 8.1]; without a4 it reads -0.4% [-8.2, 8.1]: the -2% does not hold with each account left out, so it is not plan-wide", "state": "failed", "without": { "a1": { "change_pct": -3.5, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -11.9, 5.7 ] }, "a2": { "change_pct": -1.5, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -9.3, 6.9 ] }, "a3": { "change_pct": -3.6, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -14.1, 8.1 ] }, "a4": { "change_pct": -0.4, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -8.2, 8.1 ] } } }, "readings": { "five_hour_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_interval_pct": [ -43.1, 68.6 ], "five_hour_window_change_pct": -2.2, "weekly_cap_change_pct": 0.0 }, "weekly_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_pct": 0.0, "weekly_cap_change_interval_pct": [ -40.7, 75.7 ], "weekly_cap_change_pct": 2.3 } }, "scope": { "five_hour_limit_change_interval_pct": null, "five_hour_limit_change_pct": null, "joint_fit_state": "measuring", "reason": "span test: the new family's share of the work varies too little to separate its rate from the limit change: the rate's 95% interval runs 1.08x to 2.38x its base family's, wider than 1.5x end to end or against a search bound", "separable": false, "state": "undetermined", "weekly_limit_change_interval_pct": null, "weekly_limit_change_pct": null }, "state": "measuring", "weekly_change": { "accounts_combined": [ "a1", "a2", "a3", "a4" ], "certified": false, "change_pct": -2.0, "interval_excludes_no_change": false, "interval_pct": [ -9.3, 5.9 ], "per_account": { "a1": { "change_pct": 2.2, "combined": true, "days_after": 7, "days_before": 3, "df": 8, "interval_pct": [ -13.7, 21.0 ], "level_after": 1518711, "level_before": 1485633, "log_ratio": 0.022022, "n_after": 44, "n_before": 20, "se": 0.07341, "weight": 0.2706 }, "a2": { "change_pct": -6.9, "combined": true, "days_after": 10, "days_before": 5, "df": 13, "interval_pct": [ -29.1, 22.3 ], "level_after": 1246290, "level_before": 1338133, "log_ratio": -0.071104, "n_after": 28, "n_before": 27, "se": 0.126247, "weight": 0.0915 }, "a3": { "change_pct": -0.6, "combined": true, "days_after": 13, "days_before": 2, "df": 13, "interval_pct": [ -11.2, 11.3 ], "level_after": 1451625, "level_before": 1459935, "log_ratio": -0.005708, "n_after": 79, "n_before": 16, "se": 0.052289, "weight": 0.5334 }, "a4": { "change_pct": -14.8, "combined": true, "days_after": 4, "days_before": 3, "df": 5, "interval_pct": [ -36.9, 15.1 ], "level_after": 1385041, "level_before": 1625483, "log_ratio": -0.160076, "n_after": 18, "n_before": 29, "se": 0.118194, "weight": 0.1044 } }, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2", "a3", "a4" ], "estimator": "the combined change in credits per 1% of the seven-day meter, each account against itself, weights 1 / se squared", "reason": "without a1 it reads -3.5% [-11.9, 5.7]; without a2 it reads -1.5% [-9.3, 6.9]; without a3 it reads -3.6% [-14.1, 8.1]; without a4 it reads -0.4% [-8.2, 8.1]: the -2% does not hold with each account left out, so it is not plan-wide", "state": "failed", "without": { "a1": { "change_pct": -3.5, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -11.9, 5.7 ] }, "a2": { "change_pct": -1.5, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -9.3, 6.9 ] }, "a3": { "change_pct": -3.6, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -14.1, 8.1 ] }, "a4": { "change_pct": -0.4, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -8.2, 8.1 ] } } }, "unit": "credits per 1% of the seven-day meter" }, "window_change": { "accounts_combined": [ "a1", "a2", "a3", "a4" ], "certified": false, "change_pct": 1.1, "interval_excludes_no_change": false, "interval_pct": [ -4.3, 6.9 ], "per_account": { "a1": { "change_pct": 23.2, "combined": true, "interval_pct": [ 7.9, 40.6 ], "n_after": 19, "n_before": 9, "weight": 0.1912 }, "a2": { "change_pct": 2.8, "combined": true, "interval_pct": [ -8.0, 14.8 ], "n_after": 18, "n_before": 13, "weight": 0.2708 }, "a3": { "change_pct": 3.3, "combined": true, "interval_pct": [ -8.1, 16.1 ], "n_after": 63, "n_before": 13, "weight": 0.231 }, "a4": { "change_pct": -13.2, "combined": true, "interval_pct": [ -21.9, -3.6 ], "n_after": 12, "n_before": 13, "weight": 0.307 } }, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2", "a3", "a4" ], "estimator": "the combined change in credits per 1% of the five-hour meter, each account against itself, weights 1 / se squared", "reason": "without a1 it reads -3.5% [-9.3, 2.7]; without a2 it reads +0.5% [-5.8, 7.3]; without a3 it reads +0.5% [-5.7, 7.1]: the +1.1% does not hold with each account left out, so it is not plan-wide", "state": "failed", "without": { "a1": { "change_pct": -3.5, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -9.3, 2.7 ] }, "a2": { "change_pct": 0.5, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -5.8, 7.3 ] }, "a3": { "change_pct": 0.5, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -5.7, 7.1 ] }, "a4": { "change_pct": 8.2, "holds": true, "interval_pct": [ 1.2, 15.7 ] } } }, "unit": "credits per 1% of the five-hour meter" }, "windows_per_week_change_excludes_no_change": false, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": [ -40.7, 75.7 ], "windows_per_week_change_pct": 2.3, "windows_per_week_ratio": 1.023, "windows_per_week_ratio_bootstrap_interval": [ 0.9155, 1.1741 ], "windows_per_week_ratio_interval": [ 0.593, 1.757 ], "withheld_reason": "the five-hour window change (credits per 1% of the five-hour meter) +1.1%: plan-wide test (ADR 0001 rule 9) failed: without a1 it reads -3.5% [-9.3, 2.7]; without a2 it reads +0.5% [-5.8, 7.3]; without a3 it reads +0.5% [-5.7, 7.1]: the +1.1% does not hold with each account left out, so it is not plan-wide; interval test (ADR 0001 rule 9) failed: its 95% interval [-4.3, 6.9] includes no change; the weekly limit change (credits per 1% of the seven-day meter) -2%: plan-wide test (ADR 0001 rule 9) failed: without a1 it reads -3.5% [-11.9, 5.7]; without a2 it reads -1.5% [-9.3, 6.9]; without a3 it reads -3.6% [-14.1, 8.1]; without a4 it reads -0.4% [-8.2, 8.1]: the -2% does not hold with each account left out, so it is not plan-wide; interval test (ADR 0001 rule 9) failed: its 95% interval [-9.3, 5.9] includes no change" }, { "accounts_combined": [ "a2", "a3" ], "after_until": null, "announcement": null, "applies": false, "at": "2026-10-11T21:43:47.162000+00:00", "at_source": "first_turn", "before_from": "2026-09-29T18:25:18.212000+00:00", "certified_on": [], "change_pct": -42.8, "family": "haiku-5-5", "first_seen_account": "a3", "first_seen_stretch_end": "2026-10-12T09:53:54+00:00", "headline": { "change_pct": -54.5, "interval_pct": [ -81.9, 14.4 ], "metric": "weekly_limit" }, "interval_excludes_no_change": true, "interval_pct": [ -51.5, -32.5 ], "joint_fit": { "accounts_combined": [ "a2", "a3" ], "base_family": "haiku", "bootstrap": 200, "family": "haiku-5-5", "five_hour_limit_change_interval_pct": [ -79.7, -14.4 ], "five_hour_limit_change_pct": -30.6, "log_residual_sd": 0.8563, "n_mixed_after": 0, "per_account": { "a1": { "combined": false, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 19, "new_family_share_median": null }, "a2": { "combined": true, "five_hour_limit_change_pct": -70.7, "n_after": 6, "n_before": 18, "new_family_share_median": 0.0 }, "a3": { "combined": true, "five_hour_limit_change_pct": -0.9, "n_after": 3, "n_before": 63, "new_family_share_median": 0.0 }, "a4": { "combined": false, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 12, "new_family_share_median": null } }, "plan_wide": null, "rate_check": { "list_price_ratio": 0.1, "plausible_band": [ 0.05, 0.2 ], "price_class": "input", "rate_relative_interval": [ 0.05, 20.0 ], "reason": null, "state": "passed" }, "rate_relative_interval": [ 0.05, 20.0 ], "rate_relative_to_base": 0.05, "reason": "span test: the new family's share of the work varies too little to separate its rate from the limit change: the rate's 95% interval runs 0.05x to 20.00x its base family's, wider than 1.5x end to end or against a search bound; mixing test: only 0 pooled stretches after the candidate mixed the new family at a share of 0.2 to 0.8 of the work, and the rate is identified only by mixing; 3 are needed", "rounding_sd": 0.0617, "scatter_sd": 0.2143, "separable": false, "state": "measuring", "times_opus": 0.0184, "times_opus_interval": [ 0.0184, 7.3486 ], "unclaimed_share": { "a2": { "capped_with": [ "a4" ], "interval": [ 0.04, 0.92 ], "n": 24, "n_with_unclaimed": 14, "share": 0.4 }, "a4": { "capped_with": [ "a2" ], "interval": [ 0.0, 0.6 ], "n": 12, "n_with_unclaimed": 10, "share": 0.1 } } }, "measurable": true, "method": "direct_on_both_meters", "per_account": { "a1": { "after_until": null, "before_from": "2026-09-29T18:25:18.212000+00:00", "combined": false, "n_after": 3, "n_before": 28, "n_straddling": 0, "ratio_after_over_before": null, "ratio_interval": null, "raw_windows_per_week_after": 3.0, "raw_windows_per_week_before": 4.5, "windows_per_week_after": 2.989, "windows_per_week_before": 4.4617, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": null, "windows_per_week_change_pct": null }, "a2": { "after_until": null, "before_from": "2026-09-29T18:25:18.212000+00:00", "combined": true, "n_after": 7, "n_before": 45, "n_straddling": 0, "ratio_after_over_before": 0.7802, "ratio_interval": [ 0.4288, 1.4152 ], "raw_windows_per_week_after": 3.6667, "raw_windows_per_week_before": 4.8936, "readings": { "five_hour_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_interval_pct": [ -29.3, 133.2 ], "five_hour_window_change_pct": 28.2, "weekly_cap_change_pct": 0.0 }, "weekly_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_pct": 0.0, "weekly_cap_change_interval_pct": [ -57.1, 41.5 ], "weekly_cap_change_pct": -22.0 } }, "weight": 0.8287, "windows_per_week_after": 3.5947, "windows_per_week_before": 4.6074, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": [ -57.1, 41.5 ], "windows_per_week_change_pct": -22.0 }, "a3": { "after_until": null, "before_from": "2026-09-29T18:25:18.212000+00:00", "combined": true, "n_after": 4, "n_before": 42, "n_straddling": 0, "ratio_after_over_before": 0.9472, "ratio_interval": [ 0.4058, 5.6075 ], "raw_windows_per_week_after": 6.3333, "raw_windows_per_week_before": 7.2581, "readings": { "five_hour_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_interval_pct": [ -82.2, 146.4 ], "five_hour_window_change_pct": 5.6, "weekly_cap_change_pct": 0.0 }, "weekly_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_pct": 0.0, "weekly_cap_change_interval_pct": [ -59.4, 460.7 ], "weekly_cap_change_pct": -5.3 } }, "weight": 0.1713, "windows_per_week_after": 4.6395, "windows_per_week_before": 4.8982, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": [ -59.4, 460.7 ], "windows_per_week_change_pct": -5.3 }, "a4": { "after_until": null, "before_from": "2026-09-29T18:25:18.212000+00:00", "combined": false, "n_after": 3, "n_before": 20, "n_straddling": 0, "ratio_after_over_before": null, "ratio_interval": null, "raw_windows_per_week_after": 4.0, "raw_windows_per_week_before": 5.2593, "windows_per_week_after": 3.909, "windows_per_week_before": 4.4373, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": null, "windows_per_week_change_pct": null } }, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a2" ], "estimator": "the combined change in credits per 1% of the seven-day meter, each account against itself, weights 1 / se squared", "reason": "the change rests on one account (a2); a plan limit change applies to every account at once", "state": "failed", "without": {} }, "readings": { "five_hour_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_interval_pct": [ -44.2, 135.4 ], "five_hour_window_change_pct": 24.0, "weekly_cap_change_pct": 0.0 }, "weekly_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_pct": 0.0, "weekly_cap_change_interval_pct": [ -57.5, 79.2 ], "weekly_cap_change_pct": -19.3 } }, "scope": { "five_hour_limit_change_interval_pct": null, "five_hour_limit_change_pct": null, "joint_fit_state": "measuring", "reason": "span test: the new family's share of the work varies too little to separate its rate from the limit change: the rate's 95% interval runs 0.05x to 20.00x its base family's, wider than 1.5x end to end or against a search bound; mixing test: only 0 pooled stretches after the candidate mixed the new family at a share of 0.2 to 0.8 of the work, and the rate is identified only by mixing; 3 are needed", "separable": false, "state": "undetermined", "weekly_limit_change_interval_pct": null, "weekly_limit_change_pct": null }, "state": "measuring", "weekly_change": { "accounts_combined": [ "a2" ], "certified": false, "change_pct": -54.5, "interval_excludes_no_change": false, "interval_pct": [ -81.9, 14.4 ], "per_account": { "a1": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 1, "n_before": 44 }, "a2": { "change_pct": -54.5, "combined": true, "days_after": 2, "days_before": 10, "df": 10, "interval_pct": [ -81.9, 14.4 ], "level_after": 566924, "level_before": 1246290, "log_ratio": -0.7877, "n_after": 13, "n_before": 28, "se": 0.414281, "weight": 1.0 }, "a3": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 4, "n_before": 79 }, "a4": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 18 } }, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a2" ], "estimator": "the combined change in credits per 1% of the seven-day meter, each account against itself, weights 1 / se squared", "reason": "the change rests on one account (a2); a plan limit change applies to every account at once", "state": "failed", "without": {} }, "unit": "credits per 1% of the seven-day meter" }, "window_change": { "accounts_combined": [ "a2", "a3" ], "certified": false, "change_pct": -42.8, "interval_excludes_no_change": true, "interval_pct": [ -51.5, -32.5 ], "per_account": { "a1": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 19 }, "a2": { "change_pct": -71.4, "combined": true, "interval_pct": [ -77.9, -62.9 ], "n_after": 6, "n_before": 18, "weight": 0.4425 }, "a3": { "change_pct": -0.9, "combined": true, "interval_pct": [ -20.7, 23.8 ], "n_after": 3, "n_before": 63, "weight": 0.5575 }, "a4": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 12 } }, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a2", "a3" ], "estimator": "the combined change in credits per 1% of the five-hour meter, each account against itself, weights 1 / se squared", "reason": "without a2 it reads -0.9% [-20.7, 23.8]: the -42.8% does not hold with each account left out, so it is not plan-wide", "state": "failed", "without": { "a2": { "change_pct": -0.9, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -20.7, 23.8 ] }, "a3": { "change_pct": -71.4, "holds": true, "interval_pct": [ -77.9, -62.9 ] } } }, "unit": "credits per 1% of the five-hour meter" }, "windows_per_week_change_excludes_no_change": false, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": [ -57.5, 79.2 ], "windows_per_week_change_pct": -19.3, "windows_per_week_ratio": 0.8066, "windows_per_week_ratio_bootstrap_interval": [ 0.6855, 0.9573 ], "windows_per_week_ratio_interval": [ 0.4248, 1.7916 ], "withheld_reason": "the five-hour window change (credits per 1% of the five-hour meter) -42.8%: plan-wide test (ADR 0001 rule 9) failed: without a2 it reads -0.9% [-20.7, 23.8]: the -42.8% does not hold with each account left out, so it is not plan-wide; the weekly limit change (credits per 1% of the seven-day meter) -54.5%: plan-wide test (ADR 0001 rule 9) failed: the change rests on one account (a2); a plan limit change applies to every account at once; interval test (ADR 0001 rule 9) failed: its 95% interval [-81.9, 14.4] includes no change" } ], "method": "Every change candidate (each model family's first use, `announced_change`) is measured; no announcement decides whether or how. Per account, the windows per week (five-hour meter movement, each window over its headless inflation as ADR 0001 rule 16 reads it, over seven-day meter movement, pooled over the account's own `weekly_windows.max20.by_window` readings, the same pooling and rounding interval as the 14 September paired measurement) is compared either side of the candidate instant. The before side runs from the previous boundary (the 14 September weekly change or an earlier candidate), or from the account's own certified weekly step where that is later, to the instant; the after side from five hours after the instant (a window ending sooner began before it) to the next boundary, or to the end of the account's own pre-step regime where the candidate precedes that step. An account needs 5 readings before and 1 after, and bounded rounding intervals on both sides. The accounts' ratios (after over before) are combined as a weighted mean of log ratios, weights the inverse square of each account's own log interval half-width, and the combined interval is the same weighted mean of the interval ends. No model rate enters. `windows_per_week_change_pct` is that ratio as a change, and it is scope-free: a fall can come from a larger five-hour window or a smaller weekly cap. `readings` works out both: the five-hour change 1 / ratio - 1 with the weekly cap unchanged, and the weekly cap change ratio - 1 with the window unchanged. `scope` decides between them from data. The joint fit (`joint_fit`, `joint_rate_fit`) solves, over mixed stretches either side of the candidate, for the new family's rate and the five-hour limit change g together: per stretch, meter % = (credits of models whose rate is known + rate x the new family's tokens at its base family's rate) / (the account's own before level x g). The weekly limit's change is g times the windows-per-week ratio, its interval from g's bootstrap interval and the ratio's (`windows_per_week_ratio_bootstrap_interval`) as independent log-normal ones. The fit separates the rate from g only when the rate is pinned: its 95% interval spans at most 1.5x end to end and touches neither search bound, and at least 3 pooled stretches after the candidate mix the new family at a share of 0.2 to 0.8 of the work, because only mixing identifies the rate, and its rate interval reaches half to twice the new family's input list-price ratio to its base family (`joint_fit.rate_check`, ADR 0001 rule 8; a family with no list price skips that test and says so); `scope.reason` names the test that failed. `scope` describes which of the fit's intervals exclude no change: `five_hour` g's alone, `weekly` g times the ratio's alone, `both` both, `undetermined` neither; it is reference and certifies nothing. A candidate is certified on the two direct measurements (ADR 0001 rules 9 and 11), never on the meter ratio or the joint fit. `window_change` is the known-date test's change in credits per 1% of the five-hour meter (`announced_change`, each account against itself); `weekly_change` the same shape on the seven-day meter: each account's credits over its seven-day points in its one-point steps either side (`weekly_meter.weekly_change`, the same bounds as the windows per week above, its standard error from resampled whole UTC days, at least 5 steps before and two days each side). Each combines the accounts by inverse variance and is refitted with each account left out (`plan_wide`); it is `certified` when that holds and its own 95% interval excludes no change. `certified_on` names the certified ones, `headline` is a certified one (the larger where both are), else the larger measured one, else the windows-per-week change, and `state` reads its interval (`change_state`): measuring while it includes no change, provisional once it excludes it, measured once it also has a half-width of 10 points or less; the notify step's 24 and 48 hour rules time the email and never set it. `change_pct` and `interval_pct` are the window change. A candidate after the weekly change that can be measured at all (`measurable`) opens a window regime, which carries the previous window unless the candidate applies on its window change. It `applies` -- enters `events`, can become `last_change` and reach the email -- once one of the two is certified, and steps that measurement only: a certified window change scales a thin regime's window by itself, a certified weekly change opens a per-week regime, measured directly. Every publish recomputes it. Every other candidate stays here with its figures, state and `withheld_reason`, which names each measurement and the test it failed. `announcement` is reference metadata and changes no figure, state or scope.", "plan_wide_method": "A plan limit change applies to every account at the same instant. So a change whose combined estimate draws on two or more accounts is refitted with each of them left out in turn, by the same estimator that produced it (the joint fit's g, the weekly limit change g times the windows-per-week ratio where that moved more, or the combined windows-per-week ratio while the fit cannot separate g), and it is plan-wide only if every refit keeps its direction with a 95% interval that still excludes no change. With two accounts that is each account alone. A change resting on one account is not plan-wide.", "thresholds": { "measured_half_width_pct": 10.0, "min_before": 5, "rate_plausible_times_list_ratio": [ 0.5, 2.0 ] }, "unit": "percent" }, "five_hour_window_across_cut": { "after_until": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "cut_at": "2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00", "direct_tests": { "at": "2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00", "certified_on": [], "method": "The 14 September weekly change, found by the weekly detector on the windows-per-week ratio, tested on the two direct measurements exactly as every candidate is (`five_hour_on_meters`): the five-hour window change, the known-date test at cut_at with its before side open and its after side to the first candidate after it; and the weekly limit change on the seven-day steps, each account split at its own certified weekly step where it has one (the change reaches each account at its own seven-day reset), else at cut_at. Each is combined by inverse variance and certified under ADR 0001 rule 9 (plan-wide, interval excluding no change). These are published with the event; the 14 September boundary itself is the weekly detector's certified step and is not re-decided by them.", "weekly_change": { "accounts_combined": [ "a1", "a2" ], "certified": false, "change_pct": -9.9, "interval_excludes_no_change": false, "interval_pct": [ -22.0, 4.1 ], "per_account": { "a1": { "change_pct": -9.1, "combined": true, "days_after": 5, "days_before": 19, "df": 22, "interval_pct": [ -29.4, 17.0 ], "level_after": 1172138, "level_before": 1289265, "log_ratio": -0.095243, "n_after": 94, "n_before": 155, "se": 0.121769, "weight": 0.3435 }, "a2": { "change_pct": -10.3, "combined": true, "days_after": 7, "days_before": 9, "df": 14, "interval_pct": [ -25.7, 8.3 ], "level_after": 1227335, "level_before": 1368255, "log_ratio": -0.108691, "n_after": 94, "n_before": 138, "se": 0.088075, "weight": 0.6565 }, "a3": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 97, "n_before": 0 }, "a4": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 0 } }, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "estimator": "the combined change in credits per 1% of the seven-day meter, each account against itself, weights 1 / se squared", "reason": "without a1 it reads -10.3% [-25.7, 8.3]; without a2 it reads -9.1% [-29.4, 17]: the -9.9% does not hold with each account left out, so it is not plan-wide", "state": "failed", "without": { "a1": { "change_pct": -10.3, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -25.7, 8.3 ] }, "a2": { "change_pct": -9.1, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -29.4, 17.0 ] } } }, "unit": "credits per 1% of the seven-day meter" }, "window_change": { "accounts_combined": [ "a1", "a2" ], "certified": false, "change_pct": 3.2, "interval_excludes_no_change": false, "interval_pct": [ -1.9, 8.5 ], "per_account": { "a1": { "change_pct": 3.2, "combined": true, "interval_pct": [ -3.9, 10.9 ], "n_after": 45, "n_before": 37, "weight": 0.5077 }, "a2": { "change_pct": 3.1, "combined": true, "interval_pct": [ -4.1, 10.8 ], "n_after": 41, "n_before": 78, "weight": 0.4923 }, "a3": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 52, "n_before": 0 } }, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "estimator": "the combined change in credits per 1% of the five-hour meter, each account against itself, weights 1 / se squared", "reason": "without a1 it reads +3.1% [-4.1, 10.8]; without a2 it reads +3.2% [-3.9, 10.9]: the +3.2% does not hold with each account left out, so it is not plan-wide", "state": "failed", "without": { "a1": { "change_pct": 3.1, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -4.1, 10.8 ] }, "a2": { "change_pct": 3.2, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -3.9, 10.9 ] } } }, "unit": "credits per 1% of the five-hour meter" } }, "fable_rate_held": null, "method": "median credits per 1% over the stretches the rate fits run over (capture test on every account, the personal account from 6 September, no stretch that spans the cut), split on the announced change, every stretch priced at the pooled fit's rates so the two medians are comparable to each other. An account whose n_with_capture is 0 has no usable capture column, so its meter movement includes work this host never saw and its level reads low.", "per_account": { "a1": { "after": 221166, "before": 228864, "change_pct": -3.4, "n_after": 26, "n_before": 33, "n_with_capture": 83 }, "a2": { "after": 309340, "before": 303022, "change_pct": 2.1, "n_after": 30, "n_before": 54, "n_with_capture": 116 }, "a3": { "after": 226139, "before": null, "change_pct": null, "n_after": 27, "n_before": 0, "n_with_capture": 89 }, "a4": { "after": null, "before": null, "change_pct": null, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 0, "n_with_capture": 24 } }, "rates_used": { "cache_read_weight": 0.009725, "output_multiplier": 5.0, "source": "pooled_fit", "times_opus": { "fable": 2.9658, "haiku": 0.3674, "haiku-5-5": 0.02, "opus": 1.0, "opus-5-5": 0.8, "sonnet": 0.5026, "sonnet-5-5": 0.4 }, "why": "every family at the pooled fit's own rate, Opus the unit, and every cache read at its fitted weight: the same rates on both sides of the cut, measured on the same stretches. The fit separates Fable's rate either side of the cut and finds no change in it." }, "ratio_route": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "combined": { "weekly": { "certified": false, "change_pct": -9.9, "interval_excludes_no_change": false, "interval_pct": [ -22.0, 4.1 ], "log_ratio": -0.104072, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "estimator": "weekly, each account against itself, at the weekly figure's inverse-variance weights", "reason": "without a1 it reads -10.3% [-25.7, 8.3]; without a2 it reads -9.1% [-29.4, 17]: the -9.9% does not hold with each account left out, so it is not plan-wide", "state": "failed", "without": { "a1": { "change_pct": -10.3, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -25.7, 8.3 ] }, "a2": { "change_pct": -9.1, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -29.4, 17.0 ] } } } }, "window": { "certified": false, "change_pct": 5.1, "interval_excludes_no_change": false, "interval_pct": [ -9.9, 22.5 ], "log_ratio": 0.049708, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "estimator": "window, each account against itself, at the weekly figure's inverse-variance weights", "reason": "without a1 it reads +3.2% [-14.3, 24.2]; without a2 it reads +8.9% [-19.5, 47.4]: the +5.1% does not hold with each account left out, so it is not plan-wide", "state": "failed", "without": { "a1": { "change_pct": 3.2, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -14.3, 24.2 ] }, "a2": { "change_pct": 8.9, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -19.5, 47.4 ] } } } }, "windows_per_week": { "certified": true, "change_pct": -14.3, "interval_excludes_no_change": true, "interval_pct": [ -19.0, -9.3 ], "log_ratio": -0.15378, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "estimator": "windows_per_week, each account against itself, at the weekly figure's inverse-variance weights", "reason": null, "state": "passed", "without": { "a1": { "change_pct": -13.0, "holds": true, "interval_pct": [ -18.6, -7.0 ] }, "a2": { "change_pct": -16.5, "holds": true, "interval_pct": [ -25.5, -6.5 ] } } } } }, "estimator_method": "The 14 September weekly change and its two factors, each account against itself, on one set of readings: the direct weekly test's own clean seven-day steps on its own sides (`credits.cut_weekly_steps`). On those steps the weekly limit (credits per seven-day point, the measured figure) is the window (credits per five-hour point, each step's five-hour points over its headless inflation, ADR 0001 rule 16) times windows per week (five-hour over seven-day points, the derived quotient) exactly, per account. Each has its own whole-UTC-day bootstrap t interval on the same days. The accounts are combined at one set of weights, the weekly figure's inverse variances, so the combined log changes add up exactly too; each combined interval is a t interval on its own weighted standard error. Each combined change is tested as every direct change is (ADR 0001 rule 9: each account left out in turn, and the interval excluding no change) (ADR 0001 rule 20).", "method": "The 14 September weekly change read the second way, as windows per week times the window, each account against itself, on the direct weekly test's own readings: its clean seven-day steps on its own sides (`cut_weekly_sides`), valued as it values them. On those steps the weekly limit (credits per 1% of the seven-day meter, measured directly) is the window (credits per 1% of the five-hour meter, each step's five-hour points over its headless inflation, ADR 0001 rule 16) times windows per week (five-hour over seven-day points, the derived quotient), exactly, per account and, at the weekly figure's weights, combined: the route is the direct weekly change and its two factors, never a weekly figure built from them (`weekly_meter.reconcile`, ADR 0001 rule 20). Before rule 20 the windows-per-week factor was read on five-hour meter windows and the window on stretches, two other kinds of reading over other hours, and the route stood 4 to 7 points from the direct figure (docs/findings-2026-10-08-14sep-reconcile.md).", "per_account": { "a1": { "after_from": "2026-09-13T21:30:00.476685+00:00", "after_until": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "before_from": "2026-08-14T17:00:00+00:00", "before_until": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "days_after": 5, "days_before": 19, "identity_gap": 0.0, "n_after": 94, "n_before": 155, "weekly": { "change_pct": -9.1, "df": 22, "interval_pct": [ -29.4, 17.0 ], "level_after": 1172138, "level_before": 1289265, "log_ratio": -0.095243, "se": 0.121769 }, "weight": 0.3435, "window": { "change_pct": 8.9, "df": 22, "interval_pct": [ -19.5, 47.4 ], "level_after": 237991, "level_before": 218509, "log_ratio": 0.085406, "se": 0.145827 }, "windows_per_week": { "change_pct": -16.5, "df": 22, "interval_pct": [ -25.5, -6.5 ], "level_after": 4.9251, "level_before": 5.9003, "log_ratio": -0.180648, "se": 0.05487 } }, "a2": { "after_from": "2026-09-14T03:45:24+00:00", "after_until": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "before_from": "2026-08-14T17:00:00+00:00", "before_until": "2026-09-13T22:45:34+00:00", "days_after": 7, "days_before": 9, "identity_gap": 0.0, "n_after": 94, "n_before": 138, "weekly": { "change_pct": -10.3, "df": 14, "interval_pct": [ -25.7, 8.3 ], "level_after": 1227335, "level_before": 1368255, "log_ratio": -0.108691, "se": 0.088075 }, "weight": 0.6565, "window": { "change_pct": 3.2, "df": 14, "interval_pct": [ -14.3, 24.2 ], "level_after": 283194, "level_before": 274541, "log_ratio": 0.031033, "se": 0.086564 }, "windows_per_week": { "change_pct": -13.0, "df": 14, "interval_pct": [ -18.6, -7.0 ], "level_after": 4.3339, "level_before": 4.9838, "log_ratio": -0.139725, "se": 0.031078 } } }, "unit": "credits per 1% of the seven-day meter" }, "resolved": false, "unit": "credits per 1% of the five-hour meter", "unresolved": "a stable account-specific scale cancels out of any within-account before/after ratio, so these five-hour credit readings cannot separate a change in the five-hour window from a change in the weekly cap on their own -- that needs an independent debit or allowance observation, which no committed stretch carries. See the windows-per-week ratio note on the event for what these same accounts' meters do identify." }, "harness_runs_excluded": [ { "account_label": "a3", "end": "2026-09-05T23:28:37.188099+00:00", "reason": "probe claude-sonnet-5/low completed from 2026-09-05T23:04:47Z", "start": "2026-09-05T23:04:47.304378+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a3", "end": "2026-09-06T04:17:52.209867+00:00", "reason": "probe claude-sonnet-5/low completed from 2026-09-06T04:07:08Z", "start": "2026-09-06T04:07:08.928539+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a3", "end": "2026-09-06T10:58:28.974738+00:00", "reason": "probe claude-sonnet-5/low completed from 2026-09-06T09:39:26Z", "start": "2026-09-06T09:39:26.287942+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a3", "end": "2026-09-06T11:50:52.987741+00:00", "reason": "probe claude-fable-5-1/low completed from 2026-09-06T11:16:29Z", "start": "2026-09-06T11:16:29.286577+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a3", "end": "2026-09-06T12:37:45.021747+00:00", "reason": "probe claude-fable-5-1/low completed from 2026-09-06T12:06:58Z", "start": "2026-09-06T12:06:58.599078+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a3", "end": "2026-09-06T14:59:15.152334+00:00", "reason": "probe claude-sonnet-5/low completed from 2026-09-06T14:33:05Z", "start": "2026-09-06T14:33:05.254749+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a3", "end": "2026-09-07T05:00:00.487759+00:00", "reason": "probe crashed: urllib.error.HTTPError: HTTP Error 429: Too Many Requests from 2026-09-07T00:00:00Z", "start": "2026-09-07T00:00:00.487759+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a3", "end": "2026-09-07T12:17:00.950346+00:00", "reason": "probe claude-opus-5/low completed from 2026-09-07T12:02:09Z", "start": "2026-09-07T12:02:09.304517+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a3", "end": "2026-09-08T02:40:00.352478+00:00", "reason": "probe crashed: urllib.error.HTTPError: HTTP Error 429: Too Many Requests from 2026-09-07T21:40:00Z", "start": "2026-09-07T21:40:00.352478+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a3", "end": "2026-09-08T00:24:41.356978+00:00", "reason": "probe claude-fable-5-1/low completed from 2026-09-08T00:02:08Z", "start": "2026-09-08T00:02:08.316146+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a3", "end": "2026-09-09T00:12:05.121336+00:00", "reason": "probe claude-fable-5-1/low completed from 2026-09-09T00:02:08Z", "start": "2026-09-09T00:02:08.409127+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a3", "end": "2026-09-09T00:29:19.930677+00:00", "reason": "probe claude-fable-5-1/low completed from 2026-09-09T00:14:11Z", "start": "2026-09-09T00:14:11.932199+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a3", "end": "2026-09-09T16:19:59.705592+00:00", "reason": "probe aborted: tick too early from 2026-09-09T11:19:59Z", "start": "2026-09-09T11:19:59.705592+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a3", "end": "2026-09-13T02:30:00.995961+00:00", "reason": "probe crashed: urllib.error.HTTPError: HTTP Error 401: Unauthorized from 2026-09-12T21:30:00Z", "start": "2026-09-12T21:30:00.995961+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a3", "end": "2026-09-13T07:30:00.327512+00:00", "reason": "output-probe aborted: utilization jumped 2.0% after 1 prompt; account not idle from 2026-09-13T02:30:00Z", "start": "2026-09-13T02:30:00.327512+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a3", "end": "2026-09-13T17:30:00.335043+00:00", "reason": "probe aborted: window reset during probe from 2026-09-13T12:30:00Z", "start": "2026-09-13T12:30:00.335043+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a2", "end": "2026-09-08T12:28:43.330976+00:00", "reason": "probe claude-sonnet-5/low completed from 2026-09-08T11:36:02Z", "start": "2026-09-08T11:36:02.985415+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a2", "end": "2026-09-08T13:08:02.351819+00:00", "reason": "probe claude-opus-5/low completed from 2026-09-08T12:32:29Z", "start": "2026-09-08T12:32:29.571179+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a2", "end": "2026-09-09T14:53:22.399540+00:00", "reason": "effort-matrix completed from 2026-09-09T11:28:37Z", "start": "2026-09-09T11:28:37.136014+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a2", "end": "2026-09-10T00:57:14+00:00", "reason": "probe crashed: FileNotFoundError: [Errno 2] No such file or directory: 'claude' from 2026-09-10T00:02:18Z", "start": "2026-09-10T00:02:18+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a2", "end": "2026-09-14T13:13:20.996659+00:00", "reason": "probe claude-sonnet-5/low completed from 2026-09-14T12:02:07Z", "start": "2026-09-14T12:02:07.915369+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a2", "end": "2026-09-14T15:06:57.679572+00:00", "reason": "probe claude-sonnet-5/low completed from 2026-09-14T13:16:57Z", "start": "2026-09-14T13:16:57.472646+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a2", "end": "2026-09-15T02:13:32+00:00", "reason": "probe aborted: no second tick after 80 prompts from 2026-09-15T00:03:13Z", "start": "2026-09-15T00:03:13+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a2", "end": "2026-09-15T12:58:20.419811+00:00", "reason": "probe claude-opus-5/low completed from 2026-09-15T12:02:08Z", "start": "2026-09-15T12:02:08.019387+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a2", "end": "2026-09-15T15:27:25+00:00", "reason": "probe aborted: tick too early from 2026-09-15T13:16:32Z", "start": "2026-09-15T13:16:32+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a2", "end": "2026-09-16T00:47:50+00:00", "reason": "probe aborted: account not idle: pid 443172 started and exited from 2026-09-16T00:20:15Z", "start": "2026-09-16T00:20:15+00:00" }, { "account_label": "a2", "end": "2026-10-08T12:55:37.057090+00:00", "reason": "effort-matrix completed: claude-opus-5-5, claude-sonnet-5-5 from 2026-10-08T10:43:04Z", "start": "2026-10-08T10:43:04.962826+00:00" } ], "measured_rates": { "anchor": { "family": "opus", "input": 0.6666666666666666, "output": 3.333333333333333 }, "cache_read_weight": { "fit_point": 0.009724783341441424, "interval": [ 0.007142819753447216, 0.012959521824617931 ], "measurable": false, "per_fit": { "a1/post": { "interval": [ 0.005919913629743057, 0.01937049900634501 ], "n": 49, "weight": 0.014542692773218657 }, "a1/pre": { "interval": [ 0.00025768092488561394, 0.010673080200599372 ], "n": 34, "weight": 0.005894865596659503 }, "a2/post": { "interval": [ 0.007505060212412704, 0.014511550427549754 ], "n": 61, "weight": 0.010666992557352479 }, "a2/pre": { "interval": [ 0.019106459569524427, 0.028798221212024352 ], "n": 55, "weight": 0.022990720085533184 }, "a3/post": { "interval": [ 0.00232535917049032, 0.0072336042944415625 ], "n": 89, "weight": 0.004357149824413207 } }, "reference": 0.0, "reference_range": [ 0, 0.015 ], "used_in_pricing": false, "used_in_pricing_note": "the stretches are still priced with cache reads at data/prices.json's cache_read_weight, which is 0; this is the weight the same fit puts on them, published beside it rather than folded into the window", "value": null, "why": "the pooled fit puts a cache read at 0.0097 of the Opus input rate, 80% interval [0.0071, 0.0130], which reaches zero or is too wide to publish as a value; the point estimate is used only inside the before-and-after comparison, with the rest of the fit." }, "derivation": "credits", "fits_pooled": [ "a4/post/from-2026-09-22", "a4/post/from-2026-09-29", "a3/post", "a3/post/from-2026-09-22", "a3/post/from-2026-09-29", "a3/post/from-2026-10-11", "a2/post", "a2/post/from-2026-09-22", "a2/post/from-2026-09-29", "a2/post/from-2026-10-11", "a2/pre/from-2026-08-28", "a1/post", "a1/post/from-2026-09-22", "a1/post/from-2026-09-29", "a1/pre/from-2026-08-28" ], "five_hour_unit": { "headless_factor": 1.49, "interval": [ 1.389, 1.597 ], "status": null, "what": "stretches are fitted in interactive-equivalent tokens: each stretch's headless tokens count at this factor (tracker/five_hour_weight.py)" }, "max_interval_ratio": 1.5, "method": "credits_s = sum over families of rate_f x (input + cache_write + 5x output)_f,s + w x cache_reads_s, with Opus at 1 and every other rate and w free and positive; one set of rates for every account and side of 2026-09-14, and one credits-per-1% scale per account and side. Minimises, over the rates, the sum over groups and their stretches of (log(credits_s / delta_pct_s) minus that group's mean of it) squared: the group's scale is the mean, so it is never a parameter. Nelder-Mead in log space, numpy only. The rates are then read in credits against the Opus anchor, 0.6667 credits per token. Intervals are 80% bootstrap intervals over stretches resampled within each group. A family is published when its interval starts above zero and its high end is under 1.5x its low end; a family in fewer than 3 of the stretches is held at its inferred rate and not measured. A family that is not measurable carries an `inferred` rate -- the reference table's, or its list-price ratio to Opus where the table has no row -- which the page shows marked as inferred. Stretches that span the cut are in neither group.", "output_multiplier": 5, "per_family": { "fable": { "agree": null, "anchor": false, "input": 1.9771865719742032, "interval": [ 1.8415921666033346, 2.137194906193766 ], "list_times_opus": 2.0, "max_share_of_a_clean_stretch": 1.0, "n_fits": 8, "output_multiplier": 5, "per_fit": { "a1/post": { "dominant_n": 4, "interval": [ 1.2554883305845697, 1.7471069225101439 ], "n": 49, "qualification": "4 of its 49 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Fable; pooling needs 3", "qualified": true, "rate": 1.5210153497602699 }, "a1/pre": { "dominant_n": 8, "interval": [ 1.2824951172061867, 1.6379850837551262 ], "n": 34, "qualification": "8 of its 34 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Fable; pooling needs 3", "qualified": true, "rate": 1.4501068514063653 }, "a2/post": { "dominant_n": 2, "interval": [ 2.165674577015036, 2.708442967453753 ], "n": 61, "qualification": "2 of its 61 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Fable; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 2.417160312845688 }, "a2/pre": { "dominant_n": 2, "interval": [ 2.300513618732816, 2.731971749971475 ], "n": 55, "qualification": "2 of its 55 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Fable; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 2.4715848947631405 }, "a3/post": { "dominant_n": 0, "interval": [ 1.5053836029138528, 2.3204096593102794 ], "n": 89, "qualification": "0 of its 89 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Fable; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 1.8817438176257486 } }, "provisional": false, "rate_in_use": "fitted", "rate_source": "measured", "reference_input": null, "status": null, "times_opus": 2.965779857961305, "times_opus_interval": [ 2.762388249905002, 3.205792359290649 ], "why": "one fit pooled over a4/post/from-2026-09-22, a4/post/from-2026-09-29, a3/post, a3/post/from-2026-09-22, a3/post/from-2026-09-29, a3/post/from-2026-10-11, a2/post, a2/post/from-2026-09-22, a2/post/from-2026-09-29, a2/post/from-2026-10-11, a2/pre/from-2026-08-28, a1/post, a1/post/from-2026-09-22, a1/post/from-2026-09-29, a1/pre/from-2026-08-28: rates shared by every group, one credits-per-1% scale per group. Fable 2.966x Opus, 80% bootstrap interval [2.762, 3.206] from 600 resamples stratified by group; 157 of the fit's 301 stretches carry its tokens. The per-group fits are on this record as diagnostics and enter no rate." }, "haiku": { "agree": null, "anchor": false, "input": null, "interval": null, "list_times_opus": 0.2, "max_share_of_a_clean_stretch": 0.6769916422521881, "n_fits": 11, "output_multiplier": 5, "per_fit": { "a1/post": { "dominant_n": 0, "interval": [ 0.6558820097865805, 2.9656717269868764 ], "n": 49, "qualification": "0 of its 49 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Haiku; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 1.3040220719858209 }, "a1/pre": { "dominant_n": 0, "interval": [ 0.0, 2.754547291768271 ], "n": 34, "qualification": "0 of its 34 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Haiku; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 0.7502697397513693 }, "a2/post": { "dominant_n": 0, "interval": [ 0.0, 1.5642666920724682 ], "n": 61, "qualification": "0 of its 61 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Haiku; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 0.14781064244010808 }, "a2/pre": { "dominant_n": 0, "interval": [ 0.0, 4.139183553322399 ], "n": 55, "qualification": "0 of its 55 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Haiku; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 1.3622765947692057 }, "a3/post": { "dominant_n": 1, "interval": [ 0.0, 0.3085439934978965 ], "n": 89, "qualification": "1 of its 89 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Haiku; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 0.26113240545029515 } }, "provisional": false, "rate_in_use": "inferred", "rate_source": "measured", "reference_input": 0.13333333333333333, "status": "not measurable, the pooled fit cannot pin Haiku down: its 80% interval is over 100x wide end to end, and a published rate needs under 1.5x", "times_opus": null, "times_opus_interval": null, "why": "the highest Haiku share of any clean stretch on a fitted account is 0.677. The pooled fit carries it and puts it at 0.367x Opus, but its 80% interval runs [0.000x, 1.037x], so the data do not pin it down, and neither the value nor the interval is published: an interval is priced at its midpoint where a family has no value (tracker/gs_passive.py), and this one's midpoint is not a rate anything measured. The fit's point estimate still prices this family's tokens inside the before-and-after comparison (pooled_fit), where the fit's own model is used whole. The reference figure stands beside this row, untested by our data and used in no arithmetic the page states." }, "haiku-5-5": { "agree": null, "anchor": false, "input": 0.013333333333333332, "interval": null, "list_times_opus": 0.02, "max_share_of_a_clean_stretch": 0.0983880840834583, "n_fits": 0, "output_multiplier": 5.0, "per_fit": {}, "provisional": false, "rate_in_use": "list", "rate_source": "list_price_until_separable", "reference_input": null, "status": "Haiku 5.5 is valued at its list price, 0.02x Opus; the fitted rate is not used, because the joint fit at its first use (span test: the new family's share of the work varies too little to separate its rate from the limit change: the rate's 95% interval runs 0.05x to 20.00x its base family's, wider than 1.5x end to end or against a search bound; mixing test: only 0 pooled stretches after the candidate mixed the new family at a share of 0.2 to 0.8 of the work, and the rate is identified only by mixing; 3 are needed) cannot tell that rate apart from a five-hour limit change at that instant. The fitted rate takes over once that fit separates.", "times_opus": null, "times_opus_interval": null, "why": "the highest Haiku 5.5 share of any clean stretch on a fitted account is 0.098, and only 1 of the fit's stretches carry it at all, under the 3 a fitted family needs. The pooled fit holds its tokens at its inferred rate rather than dropping the stretches that carry them, and measures nothing about it. There is no reference figure for Haiku 5.5 either: the January table predates it." }, "opus": { "agree": null, "anchor": true, "input": 0.6666666666666666, "interval": null, "list_times_opus": 1.0, "max_share_of_a_clean_stretch": 1.0, "n_fits": 0, "output_multiplier": 5, "per_fit": { "a1/post": { "dominant_n": 4, "interval": [ 0.6666666666666666, 0.6666666666666666 ], "n": 49, "qualification": "the anchor is exempt from the dominance rule", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.6666666666666666 }, "a1/pre": { "dominant_n": 3, "interval": [ 0.6666666666666666, 0.6666666666666666 ], "n": 34, "qualification": "the anchor is exempt from the dominance rule", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.6666666666666666 }, "a2/post": { "dominant_n": 13, "interval": [ 0.6666666666666666, 0.6666666666666666 ], "n": 61, "qualification": "the anchor is exempt from the dominance rule", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.6666666666666666 }, "a2/pre": { "dominant_n": 39, "interval": [ 0.6666666666666666, 0.6666666666666666 ], "n": 55, "qualification": "the anchor is exempt from the dominance rule", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.6666666666666666 }, "a3/post": { "dominant_n": 5, "interval": [ 0.6666666666666666, 0.6666666666666666 ], "n": 89, "qualification": "the anchor is exempt from the dominance rule", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.6666666666666666 } }, "provisional": false, "rate_in_use": "anchor", "rate_source": "reference", "reference_input": 0.6666666666666666, "status": null, "times_opus": 1.0, "times_opus_interval": null, "why": "the unit anchor: 0.6667 credits per input token (5x that per output token), which is what a credit means in this repository. The pooled fit holds it at 1 and measures every other rate relative to it, so none of them tests it. If this row is wrong every credit figure scales with it and nothing in our stretches would show it." }, "opus-5-5": { "agree": null, "anchor": false, "input": 0.5333333333333333, "interval": null, "list_times_opus": 0.8, "max_share_of_a_clean_stretch": 1.0, "n_fits": 10, "output_multiplier": 5.0, "per_fit": { "a1/post": { "dominant_n": 13, "interval": [ 0.09412523135887968, 0.21351916430669762 ], "n": 49, "qualification": "13 of its 49 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Opus 5.5; pooling needs 3", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.1481173168001174 }, "a2/post": { "dominant_n": 25, "interval": [ 0.48260910703284365, 0.5836323858302221 ], "n": 61, "qualification": "25 of its 61 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Opus 5.5; pooling needs 3", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.531728713442548 }, "a3/post": { "dominant_n": 57, "interval": [ 0.31497287918583167, 0.38508195823264263 ], "n": 89, "qualification": "57 of its 89 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Opus 5.5; pooling needs 3", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.34830101714493333 } }, "provisional": false, "rate_in_use": "list", "rate_source": "list_price_until_separable", "reference_input": null, "status": "Opus 5.5 is valued at its list price, 0.8x Opus; the fitted 0.78x Opus is not used, because the joint fit at its first use (span test: the new family's share of the work varies too little to separate its rate from the limit change: the rate's 95% interval runs 0.82x to 1.33x its base family's, wider than 1.5x end to end or against a search bound) cannot tell that rate apart from a five-hour limit change at that instant. The fitted rate takes over once that fit separates.", "times_opus": 0.7795328467326759, "times_opus_interval": [ 0.6524732466205921, 0.9377067713397763 ], "why": "one fit pooled over a4/post/from-2026-09-22, a4/post/from-2026-09-29, a3/post, a3/post/from-2026-09-22, a3/post/from-2026-09-29, a3/post/from-2026-10-11, a2/post, a2/post/from-2026-09-22, a2/post/from-2026-09-29, a2/post/from-2026-10-11, a2/pre/from-2026-08-28, a1/post, a1/post/from-2026-09-22, a1/post/from-2026-09-29, a1/pre/from-2026-08-28: rates shared by every group, one credits-per-1% scale per group. Opus 5.5 0.780x Opus, 80% bootstrap interval [0.652, 0.938] from 600 resamples stratified by group; 123 of the fit's 301 stretches carry its tokens. The per-group fits are on this record as diagnostics and enter no rate." }, "sonnet": { "agree": null, "anchor": false, "input": 0.33505896338220065, "interval": [ 0.2961779457712725, 0.38628337062267504 ], "list_times_opus": 0.4, "max_share_of_a_clean_stretch": 0.9757085087506521, "n_fits": 11, "output_multiplier": 5, "per_fit": { "a1/post": { "dominant_n": 3, "interval": [ 0.025763063115817667, 0.2173651825550278 ], "n": 49, "qualification": "3 of its 49 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Sonnet; pooling needs 3", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.11543259331640994 }, "a1/pre": { "dominant_n": 1, "interval": [ 0.0, 0.2636141101908094 ], "n": 34, "qualification": "1 of its 34 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Sonnet; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 0.12661077125952588 }, "a2/post": { "dominant_n": 2, "interval": [ 0.3869245417845704, 0.5568713336142593 ], "n": 61, "qualification": "2 of its 61 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Sonnet; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 0.46476388668466667 }, "a2/pre": { "dominant_n": 1, "interval": [ 0.525697191968812, 0.6536132895256204 ], "n": 55, "qualification": "1 of its 55 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Sonnet; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 0.60390644376875 }, "a3/post": { "dominant_n": 19, "interval": [ 0.24365753377839308, 0.3260658147485031 ], "n": 89, "qualification": "19 of its 89 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Sonnet; pooling needs 3", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.2771484976900909 } }, "provisional": false, "rate_in_use": "fitted", "rate_source": "measured", "reference_input": 0.4, "status": null, "times_opus": 0.502588445073301, "times_opus_interval": [ 0.44426691865690876, 0.5794250559340126 ], "why": "one fit pooled over a4/post/from-2026-09-22, a4/post/from-2026-09-29, a3/post, a3/post/from-2026-09-22, a3/post/from-2026-09-29, a3/post/from-2026-10-11, a2/post, a2/post/from-2026-09-22, a2/post/from-2026-09-29, a2/post/from-2026-10-11, a2/pre/from-2026-08-28, a1/post, a1/post/from-2026-09-22, a1/post/from-2026-09-29, a1/pre/from-2026-08-28: rates shared by every group, one credits-per-1% scale per group. Sonnet 0.503x Opus, 80% bootstrap interval [0.444, 0.579] from 600 resamples stratified by group; 190 of the fit's 301 stretches carry its tokens. The per-group fits are on this record as diagnostics and enter no rate." }, "sonnet-5-5": { "agree": null, "anchor": false, "input": 0.26666666666666666, "interval": null, "list_times_opus": 0.4, "max_share_of_a_clean_stretch": 0.65747243334114, "n_fits": 5, "output_multiplier": 5.0, "per_fit": { "a1/post": { "dominant_n": 0, "interval": [ 0.0, 0.5130486508344574 ], "n": 49, "qualification": "0 of its 49 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Sonnet 5.5; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 0.017401970510935717 }, "a2/post": { "dominant_n": 1, "interval": [ 0.21649467779385712, 0.511974440393928 ], "n": 61, "qualification": "1 of its 61 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Sonnet 5.5; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 0.39720008427091397 }, "a3/post": { "dominant_n": 0, "interval": [ 0.10682271034176227, 0.32160645047596725 ], "n": 89, "qualification": "0 of its 89 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Sonnet 5.5; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 0.24268225413080335 } }, "provisional": false, "rate_in_use": "list", "rate_source": "list_price_until_separable", "reference_input": null, "status": "Sonnet 5.5 is valued at its list price, 0.4x Opus; the fitted 0.497x Opus is not used, because the joint fit at its first use (span test: the new family's share of the work varies too little to separate its rate from the limit change: the rate's 95% interval runs 1.08x to 2.38x its base family's, wider than 1.5x end to end or against a search bound) cannot tell that rate apart from a five-hour limit change at that instant. The fitted rate takes over once that fit separates.", "times_opus": 0.49727318510580704, "times_opus_interval": [ 0.30571447334887797, 0.6767042205625393 ], "why": "provisional, one fit pooled over a4/post/from-2026-09-22, a4/post/from-2026-09-29, a3/post, a3/post/from-2026-09-22, a3/post/from-2026-09-29, a3/post/from-2026-10-11, a2/post, a2/post/from-2026-09-22, a2/post/from-2026-09-29, a2/post/from-2026-10-11, a2/pre/from-2026-08-28, a1/post, a1/post/from-2026-09-22, a1/post/from-2026-09-29, a1/pre/from-2026-08-28: rates shared by every group, one credits-per-1% scale per group. Sonnet 5.5 0.497x Opus, 80% bootstrap interval [0.306, 0.677] from 600 resamples stratified by group; 46 of the fit's 301 stretches carry its tokens. The per-group fits are on this record as diagnostics and enter no rate." } }, "pooled_fit": { "cache_read_weight": 0.009724783341441424, "cache_read_weight_interval": [ 0.007142819753447216, 0.012959521824617931 ], "credits_per_pct": { "a1/post": 227889.4506930741, "a1/post/from-2026-09-22": 280219.3873106346, "a1/post/from-2026-09-29": 344351.9454575818, "a1/pre/from-2026-08-28": 228650.87680437037, "a2/post": 303014.21700852393, "a2/post/from-2026-09-22": 314995.2597326344, "a2/post/from-2026-09-29": 318341.5235735514, "a2/post/from-2026-10-11": 227090.64992690156, "a2/pre/from-2026-08-28": 301769.7625835742, "a3/post": 223789.34461651908, "a3/post/from-2026-09-22": 263947.3375713287, "a3/post/from-2026-09-29": 300028.08614226227, "a3/post/from-2026-10-11": 291052.77957499726, "a4/post/from-2026-09-22": 421241.39097459137, "a4/post/from-2026-09-29": 312629.28698846186 }, "fable_by_era": { "post": 2.8723168349434984, "post_interval": [ 2.5550739456121363, 3.2486395425843733 ], "post_over_pre": 0.9488573959616023, "post_over_pre_interval": [ 0.8555871770402947, 1.0614907629427863 ], "pre": 3.0271322615687692, "pre_interval": [ 2.836075948133731, 3.2250834190632234 ], "sse": 5.6387580343334545 }, "groups": [ "a4/post/from-2026-09-22", "a4/post/from-2026-09-29", "a3/post", "a3/post/from-2026-09-22", "a3/post/from-2026-09-29", "a3/post/from-2026-10-11", "a2/post", "a2/post/from-2026-09-22", "a2/post/from-2026-09-29", "a2/post/from-2026-10-11", "a2/pre/from-2026-08-28", "a1/post", "a1/post/from-2026-09-22", "a1/post/from-2026-09-29", "a1/pre/from-2026-08-28" ], "held": [ "haiku-5-5" ], "held_rate": { "haiku-5-5": 0.02 }, "interval": { "fable": [ 2.762388249905002, 3.205792359290649 ], "haiku": [ 1.4010165126367345e-13, 1.0373695770254225 ], "opus-5-5": [ 0.6524732466205921, 0.9377067713397763 ], "sonnet": [ 0.44426691865690876, 0.5794250559340126 ], "sonnet-5-5": [ 0.30571447334887797, 0.6767042205625393 ] }, "leave_one_out": { "a1": { "cache_read_weight": 0.010444985949257402, "n": 221, "times_opus": { "fable": 3.3470522941514647, "haiku": 0.1786376320572398, "opus": 1.0, "opus-5-5": 0.9592786951533097, "sonnet": 0.5481398315957011, "sonnet-5-5": 0.6069716254312163 } }, "a2": { "cache_read_weight": 0.005604550780441827, "n": 188, "times_opus": { "fable": 2.276122859279685, "haiku": 0.5959262649579334, "opus": 1.0, "opus-5-5": 0.5236244837355495, "sonnet": 0.3321709207477456, "sonnet-5-5": 0.2895220262621128 } }, "a3": { "cache_read_weight": 0.015436503606744147, "n": 215, "times_opus": { "fable": 3.3193968142752985, "haiku": 1.2847888638465255, "opus": 1.0, "opus-5-5": 1.002357999064132, "sonnet": 0.6345596780940254, "sonnet-5-5": 0.5415195548360773 } }, "a4": { "cache_read_weight": 0.009553707975260523, "n": 279, "times_opus": { "fable": 2.9771047633624774, "haiku": 3.1367910879281525e-14, "opus": 1.0, "opus-5-5": 0.6772800558695661, "sonnet": 0.5266418492341559, "sonnet-5-5": 0.5506038400293306 } } }, "n": 301, "output_multiplier": 5, "resamples": 600, "sse": 5.645324377745945, "times_opus": { "fable": 2.965779857961305, "haiku": 0.3674322565939884, "haiku-5-5": 0.02, "opus": 1.0, "opus-5-5": 0.8, "sonnet": 0.502588445073301, "sonnet-5-5": 0.4 } }, "provisional_max_interval_ratio": 3.0, "source": "history/model-rates.json, written by tools/model_rates.py --json from the passive stretches already in the repository; the command that regenerates it is in that file's own `_meta.command`, and it sends no traffic. docs/findings-2026-09-20-measured-rates.md records every rate and every published figure that moved when the page stopped dividing by the reference table.", "source_file": "model-rates.json", "status": null, "unit": "credits per input token; the output rate is output_multiplier times it", "variant": "pooled" }, "per_model": { "fable": { "anchor": false, "api_value_per_window_usd": { "input": { "interval": [ 135.09, 216.16 ], "status": null, "value": 176.48 }, "output": { "interval": [ 135.09, 360.27 ], "status": null, "value": 176.48 } }, "as_of": "2026-10-12T13:12:24+00:00", "as_of_source": "the newest stretch this row's figures rest on: the pure-family cluster behind the window, and the fits behind the rate where the rate is measured", "credits_per_token": { "input": 1.9771865719742032, "output": 9.885932859871016 }, "credits_per_token_interval": { "input": [ 1.8415921666033346, 2.137194906193766 ], "output": [ 5.524776499810004, 10.68597453096883 ] }, "derivation": "credits", "inferred_from": null, "interval_rule": "computed at publish time by tracker/credits.py fable_interval, never stored here: the rate is solved per Fable-heavy stretch against the measured window, and the interval runs from the lowest per-account p25 at output 5x input to the highest per-account p25 at output 3x. Storing the endpoints would freeze a measurement into a table of reference rates, and it narrows as clean Fable-heavy stretches accrue from ordinary use.", "interval_source": "docs/findings-2026-09-20-reconciliation.md, \"Fable's rate\". Only three stretches on the account with a usable capture column survive the capture gate, and the solve is inflated wherever the meter counts machines the transcripts never saw, so both edges are a p25.", "list_price_model": "claude-fable-5-1", "measured_rate": { "agree": null, "max_share_of_a_clean_stretch": 1.0, "n_fits": 8, "output_multiplier": 5, "output_ratio_candidates": [ 3, 5 ], "per_fit": { "a1/post": { "dominant_n": 4, "interval": [ 1.2554883305845697, 1.7471069225101439 ], "n": 49, "qualification": "4 of its 49 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Fable; pooling needs 3", "qualified": true, "rate": 1.5210153497602699 }, "a1/pre": { "dominant_n": 8, "interval": [ 1.2824951172061867, 1.6379850837551262 ], "n": 34, "qualification": "8 of its 34 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Fable; pooling needs 3", "qualified": true, "rate": 1.4501068514063653 }, "a2/post": { "dominant_n": 2, "interval": [ 2.165674577015036, 2.708442967453753 ], "n": 61, "qualification": "2 of its 61 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Fable; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 2.417160312845688 }, "a2/pre": { "dominant_n": 2, "interval": [ 2.300513618732816, 2.731971749971475 ], "n": 55, "qualification": "2 of its 55 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Fable; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 2.4715848947631405 }, "a3/post": { "dominant_n": 0, "interval": [ 1.5053836029138528, 2.3204096593102794 ], "n": 89, "qualification": "0 of its 89 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Fable; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 1.8817438176257486 } }, "provisional": false, "times_opus": 2.965779857961305, "times_opus_interval": [ 2.762388249905002, 3.205792359290649 ], "why": "one fit pooled over a4/post/from-2026-09-22, a4/post/from-2026-09-29, a3/post, a3/post/from-2026-09-22, a3/post/from-2026-09-29, a3/post/from-2026-10-11, a2/post, a2/post/from-2026-09-22, a2/post/from-2026-09-29, a2/post/from-2026-10-11, a2/pre/from-2026-08-28, a1/post, a1/post/from-2026-09-22, a1/post/from-2026-09-29, a1/pre/from-2026-08-28: rates shared by every group, one credits-per-1% scale per group. Fable 2.966x Opus, 80% bootstrap interval [2.762, 3.206] from 600 resamples stratified by group; 157 of the fit's 301 stretches carry its tokens. The per-group fits are on this record as diagnostics and enter no rate." }, "rate_source": "measured", "reference_rate": { "input": null, "output": null }, "reference_rate_note": "the January 2026 table's figure for this family, drawn beside the measurement and used in no arithmetic", "status": null, "tokens_per_window": { "input": { "interval": [ 13508851, 21616228 ], "status": null, "value": 17648128 }, "output": { "interval": [ 2701770, 7205409 ], "status": null, "value": 3529626 } } }, "haiku": { "anchor": false, "api_value_per_window_usd": { "input": { "interval": [ 216.53, 298.56 ], "status": null, "value": 261.7 }, "output": { "interval": [ 216.53, 298.56 ], "status": null, "value": 261.7 } }, "as_of": "2026-10-12T13:12:24+00:00", "as_of_source": "the newest stretch this row's figures rest on: the pure-family cluster behind the window, and the fits behind the rate where the rate is measured", "credits_per_token": { "input": 0.13333333333333333, "output": 0.6666666666666666 }, "credits_per_token_interval": null, "derivation": "credits", "inferred_from": "reference_table", "interval_rule": null, "interval_source": null, "list_price_model": "claude-haiku-4-5", "measured_rate": { "inferred_basis": "data/prices.json `_credits` reference table: Haiku at 0.1333 credits per input token", "inferred_from": "reference_table", "max_share_of_a_clean_stretch": 0.6769916422521881, "measured_status": "not measurable, the pooled fit cannot pin Haiku down: its 80% interval is over 100x wide end to end, and a published rate needs under 1.5x", "n_fits": 11, "output_multiplier": 5, "per_fit": { "a1/post": { "dominant_n": 0, "interval": [ 0.6558820097865805, 2.9656717269868764 ], "n": 49, "qualification": "0 of its 49 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Haiku; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 1.3040220719858209 }, "a1/pre": { "dominant_n": 0, "interval": [ 0.0, 2.754547291768271 ], "n": 34, "qualification": "0 of its 34 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Haiku; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 0.7502697397513693 }, "a2/post": { "dominant_n": 0, "interval": [ 0.0, 1.5642666920724682 ], "n": 61, "qualification": "0 of its 61 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Haiku; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 0.14781064244010808 }, "a2/pre": { "dominant_n": 0, "interval": [ 0.0, 4.139183553322399 ], "n": 55, "qualification": "0 of its 55 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Haiku; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 1.3622765947692057 }, "a3/post": { "dominant_n": 1, "interval": [ 0.0, 0.3085439934978965 ], "n": 89, "qualification": "1 of its 89 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Haiku; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 0.26113240545029515 } }, "pooled": { "groups_carrying": [ "a4/post/from-2026-09-22", "a4/post/from-2026-09-29", "a3/post", "a3/post/from-2026-09-29", "a2/post", "a2/post/from-2026-09-22", "a2/post/from-2026-09-29", "a2/pre/from-2026-08-28", "a1/post", "a1/post/from-2026-09-22", "a1/pre/from-2026-08-28" ], "interval": [ 1.4010165126367345e-13, 1.0373695770254225 ], "n_stretches_carrying": 88, "times_opus": 0.3674322565939884 }, "times_opus": 0.2, "why": "the highest Haiku share of any clean stretch on a fitted account is 0.677. The pooled fit carries it and puts it at 0.367x Opus, but its 80% interval runs [0.000x, 1.037x], so the data do not pin it down, and neither the value nor the interval is published: an interval is priced at its midpoint where a family has no value (tracker/gs_passive.py), and this one's midpoint is not a rate anything measured. The fit's point estimate still prices this family's tokens inside the before-and-after comparison (pooled_fit), where the fit's own model is used whole. The reference figure stands beside this row, untested by our data and used in no arithmetic the page states." }, "rate_source": "inferred", "reference_rate": { "input": 0.13333333333333333, "output": 0.6666666666666666 }, "reference_rate_note": "the January 2026 table's figure for this family, drawn beside the measurement and used in no arithmetic", "status": null, "tokens_per_window": { "input": { "interval": [ 216532860, 298562070 ], "status": null, "value": 261702308 }, "output": { "interval": [ 43306572, 59712414 ], "status": null, "value": 52340462 } } }, "opus": { "anchor": true, "api_value_per_window_usd": { "input": { "interval": [ 216.53, 298.56 ], "status": null, "value": 261.7 }, "output": { "interval": [ 216.53, 298.56 ], "status": null, "value": 261.7 } }, "as_of": "2026-09-21T15:05:39+00:00", "as_of_source": "the newest stretch this row's figures rest on: the pure-family cluster behind the window, and the fits behind the rate where the rate is measured", "credits_per_token": { "input": 0.6666666666666666, "output": 3.3333333333333335 }, "credits_per_token_interval": null, "derivation": "credits", "inferred_from": null, "interval_rule": null, "interval_source": null, "list_price_model": "claude-opus-5", "measured_rate": { "agree": null, "max_share_of_a_clean_stretch": 1.0, "n_fits": 0, "output_multiplier": 5, "per_fit": { "a1/post": { "dominant_n": 4, "interval": [ 0.6666666666666666, 0.6666666666666666 ], "n": 49, "qualification": "the anchor is exempt from the dominance rule", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.6666666666666666 }, "a1/pre": { "dominant_n": 3, "interval": [ 0.6666666666666666, 0.6666666666666666 ], "n": 34, "qualification": "the anchor is exempt from the dominance rule", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.6666666666666666 }, "a2/post": { "dominant_n": 13, "interval": [ 0.6666666666666666, 0.6666666666666666 ], "n": 61, "qualification": "the anchor is exempt from the dominance rule", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.6666666666666666 }, "a2/pre": { "dominant_n": 39, "interval": [ 0.6666666666666666, 0.6666666666666666 ], "n": 55, "qualification": "the anchor is exempt from the dominance rule", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.6666666666666666 }, "a3/post": { "dominant_n": 5, "interval": [ 0.6666666666666666, 0.6666666666666666 ], "n": 89, "qualification": "the anchor is exempt from the dominance rule", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.6666666666666666 } }, "provisional": false, "times_opus": 1.0, "times_opus_interval": null, "why": "the unit anchor: 0.6667 credits per input token (5x that per output token), which is what a credit means in this repository. The pooled fit holds it at 1 and measures every other rate relative to it, so none of them tests it. If this row is wrong every credit figure scales with it and nothing in our stretches would show it." }, "rate_source": "reference", "reference_rate": { "input": 0.6666666666666666, "output": 3.3333333333333335 }, "reference_rate_note": "the January 2026 table's figure for this family, drawn beside the measurement and used in no arithmetic", "status": null, "tokens_per_window": { "input": { "interval": [ 43306572, 59712414 ], "status": null, "value": 52340462 }, "output": { "interval": [ 8661314, 11942483 ], "status": null, "value": 10468092 } } }, "opus-5-5": { "anchor": false, "api_value_per_window_usd": { "input": { "interval": [ 216.53, 298.56 ], "status": null, "value": 261.7 }, "output": { "interval": [ 216.53, 298.56 ], "status": null, "value": 261.7 } }, "as_of": "2026-10-12T13:12:24+00:00", "as_of_source": "the newest stretch this row's figures rest on: the pure-family cluster behind the window, and the fits behind the rate where the rate is measured", "credits_per_token": { "input": 0.5333333333333333, "output": 2.6666666666666665 }, "credits_per_token_interval": null, "derivation": "credits", "inferred_from": null, "interval_rule": null, "interval_source": null, "list_price_model": "claude-opus-5-5", "measured_rate": { "agree": null, "list_times_opus": 0.8, "max_share_of_a_clean_stretch": 1.0, "n_fits": 10, "output_multiplier": 5.0, "per_fit": { "a1/post": { "dominant_n": 13, "interval": [ 0.09412523135887968, 0.21351916430669762 ], "n": 49, "qualification": "13 of its 49 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Opus 5.5; pooling needs 3", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.1481173168001174 }, "a2/post": { "dominant_n": 25, "interval": [ 0.48260910703284365, 0.5836323858302221 ], "n": 61, "qualification": "25 of its 61 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Opus 5.5; pooling needs 3", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.531728713442548 }, "a3/post": { "dominant_n": 57, "interval": [ 0.31497287918583167, 0.38508195823264263 ], "n": 89, "qualification": "57 of its 89 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Opus 5.5; pooling needs 3", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.34830101714493333 } }, "provisional": false, "rate_in_use": "list", "times_opus": 0.7795328467326759, "times_opus_interval": [ 0.6524732466205921, 0.9377067713397763 ], "why": "one fit pooled over a4/post/from-2026-09-22, a4/post/from-2026-09-29, a3/post, a3/post/from-2026-09-22, a3/post/from-2026-09-29, a3/post/from-2026-10-11, a2/post, a2/post/from-2026-09-22, a2/post/from-2026-09-29, a2/post/from-2026-10-11, a2/pre/from-2026-08-28, a1/post, a1/post/from-2026-09-22, a1/post/from-2026-09-29, a1/pre/from-2026-08-28: rates shared by every group, one credits-per-1% scale per group. Opus 5.5 0.780x Opus, 80% bootstrap interval [0.652, 0.938] from 600 resamples stratified by group; 123 of the fit's 301 stretches carry its tokens. The per-group fits are on this record as diagnostics and enter no rate." }, "rate_source": "list_price_until_separable", "reference_rate": { "input": null, "output": null }, "reference_rate_note": "the January 2026 table's figure for this family, drawn beside the measurement and used in no arithmetic", "status": "Opus 5.5 is valued at its list price, 0.8x Opus; the fitted 0.78x Opus is not used, because the joint fit at its first use (span test: the new family's share of the work varies too little to separate its rate from the limit change: the rate's 95% interval runs 0.82x to 1.33x its base family's, wider than 1.5x end to end or against a search bound) cannot tell that rate apart from a five-hour limit change at that instant. The fitted rate takes over once that fit separates.", "tokens_per_window": { "input": { "interval": [ 54133215, 74640518 ], "status": null, "value": 65425577 }, "output": { "interval": [ 10826643, 14928104 ], "status": null, "value": 13085115 } } }, "sonnet": { "anchor": false, "api_value_per_window_usd": { "input": { "interval": [ 149.48, 268.81 ], "status": null, "value": 208.28 }, "output": { "interval": [ 149.48, 268.81 ], "status": null, "value": 208.28 } }, "as_of": "2026-10-12T13:12:24+00:00", "as_of_source": "the newest stretch this row's figures rest on: the pure-family cluster behind the window, and the fits behind the rate where the rate is measured", "credits_per_token": { "input": 0.33505896338220065, "output": 1.6752948169110033 }, "credits_per_token_interval": { "input": [ 0.2961779457712725, 0.38628337062267504 ], "output": [ 1.4808897288563625, 1.931416853113375 ] }, "derivation": "credits", "inferred_from": null, "interval_rule": null, "interval_source": null, "list_price_model": "claude-sonnet-5", "measured_rate": { "agree": null, "max_share_of_a_clean_stretch": 0.9757085087506521, "n_fits": 11, "output_multiplier": 5, "per_fit": { "a1/post": { "dominant_n": 3, "interval": [ 0.025763063115817667, 0.2173651825550278 ], "n": 49, "qualification": "3 of its 49 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Sonnet; pooling needs 3", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.11543259331640994 }, "a1/pre": { "dominant_n": 1, "interval": [ 0.0, 0.2636141101908094 ], "n": 34, "qualification": "1 of its 34 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Sonnet; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 0.12661077125952588 }, "a2/post": { "dominant_n": 2, "interval": [ 0.3869245417845704, 0.5568713336142593 ], "n": 61, "qualification": "2 of its 61 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Sonnet; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 0.46476388668466667 }, "a2/pre": { "dominant_n": 1, "interval": [ 0.525697191968812, 0.6536132895256204 ], "n": 55, "qualification": "1 of its 55 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Sonnet; pooling needs 3", "qualified": false, "rate": 0.60390644376875 }, "a3/post": { "dominant_n": 19, "interval": [ 0.24365753377839308, 0.3260658147485031 ], "n": 89, "qualification": "19 of its 89 stretches carry 60% or more of their raw tokens on Sonnet; pooling needs 3", "qualified": true, "rate": 0.2771484976900909 } }, "provisional": false, "times_opus": 0.502588445073301, "times_opus_interval": [ 0.44426691865690876, 0.5794250559340126 ], "why": "one fit pooled over a4/post/from-2026-09-22, a4/post/from-2026-09-29, a3/post, a3/post/from-2026-09-22, a3/post/from-2026-09-29, a3/post/from-2026-10-11, a2/post, a2/post/from-2026-09-22, a2/post/from-2026-09-29, a2/post/from-2026-10-11, a2/pre/from-2026-08-28, a1/post, a1/post/from-2026-09-22, a1/post/from-2026-09-29, a1/pre/from-2026-08-28: rates shared by every group, one credits-per-1% scale per group. Sonnet 0.503x Opus, 80% bootstrap interval [0.444, 0.579] from 600 resamples stratified by group; 190 of the fit's 301 stretches carry its tokens. The per-group fits are on this record as diagnostics and enter no rate." }, "rate_source": "measured", "reference_rate": { "input": 0.4, "output": 2.0 }, "reference_rate_note": "the January 2026 table's figure for this family, drawn beside the measurement and used in no arithmetic", "status": null, "tokens_per_window": { "input": { "interval": [ 74740593, 134406618 ], "status": null, "value": 104141792 }, "output": { "interval": [ 14948119, 26881324 ], "status": null, "value": 20828358 } } } }, "rates": { "cache_read_weight": 0, "cache_read_weight_range": [ 0, 0.015 ], "cache_write": "charged at the model's plain input rate, not the API's 1.25x write premium", "per_family": { "fable": { "input": null, "interval": { "input": 1.9772, "input_high": 2.1372, "input_low": 1.8416, "method": "one set of per-token rates shared by every account and side of 14 September, with one credits-per-1% scale per account and side, fitted over the clean stretches (history/model-rates.json measured_rates.pooled_fit); the interval is its 80% bootstrap interval, resampling stretches within each group.", "output_ratio": [ 5 ], "solved": { "fable_heavy_share": 0.5, "input_high": 1.3737, "input_low": 0.6006, "method": "solved per Fable-heavy stretch (Fable over 50% of the tokens the meter charges for) against the measured window; the interval runs from the lowest per-account p25 at output 5x input to the highest per-account p25 at output 3x. Both edges are a p25 because the solve is inflated wherever the meter counts machines the transcripts never saw.", "output_ratio": [ 3, 5 ], "per_account": { "a1": { "output_3x": { "median": 3.7829, "n": 22, "p25": 1.3737 }, "output_5x": { "median": 2.8892, "n": 22, "p25": 1.0758 } }, "a2": { "output_3x": { "median": 1.0675, "n": 18, "p25": 0.8574 }, "output_5x": { "median": 0.8469, "n": 18, "p25": 0.6963 } }, "a3": { "output_3x": { "median": 1.1094, "n": 36, "p25": 0.9816 }, "output_5x": { "median": 0.854, "n": 36, "p25": 0.753 } }, "a4": { "output_3x": { "median": 0.9473, "n": 5, "p25": 0.6658 }, "output_5x": { "median": 0.7021, "n": 5, "p25": 0.6006 } } }, "status": "interval, not yet separable", "times_opus": [ 0.9, 2.06 ], "unresolved": null, "window_credits_per_pct": 348936 }, "status": "measured by one fit pooled across every account", "times_opus": [ 2.76, 3.21 ], "unresolved": null }, "interval_rule": "computed at publish time by tracker/credits.py fable_interval, never stored here: the rate is solved per Fable-heavy stretch against the measured window, and the interval runs from the lowest per-account p25 at output 5x input to the highest per-account p25 at output 3x. Storing the endpoints would freeze a measurement into a table of reference rates, and it narrows as clean Fable-heavy stretches accrue from ordinary use.", "interval_source": "docs/findings-2026-09-20-reconciliation.md, \"Fable's rate\". Only three stretches on the account with a usable capture column survive the capture gate, and the solve is inflated wherever the meter counts machines the transcripts never saw, so both edges are a p25.", "matches": "fable", "measured": "fitted on both sides of 2026-09-14 in history/model-rates.json measured_rates.per_family.fable, and the two sides do not agree within their intervals, so the page publishes the interval and the words 'rate not yet identified' rather than a rate.", "members": [ "claude-fable-5-1", "claude-fable-5" ], "output": null, "output_ratio_candidates": [ 3, 5 ], "output_ratio_source": "docs/reference-2026-09-20-shellac-credits-model.md: every model in the article's table uses output = 5x input; the same note fits 3 for Fable with a bootstrap interval of [3, 3]. docs/findings-2026-09-20-reconciliation.md: the output ratio (3x or 5x) is not separable from our stretches, so both candidates are carried and neither is chosen.", "role": "reference" }, "haiku": { "input": [ 2, 15 ], "matches": "haiku", "measured": "not measurable from our stretches: see history/model-rates.json measured_rates.per_family.haiku. The highest Haiku share of any clean stretch on a fitted account is zero, so this row stands untested and the page publishes a status sentence rather than a number.", "members": [ "claude-haiku-4-5" ], "output": [ 10, 15 ], "role": "reference" }, "opus": { "anchor": true, "anchor_note": "the unit anchor: what a credit means in this repository. Every other family's rate is measured relative to this row, and the fit rescales its Opus coefficient to it, so nothing in our data tests this row itself.", "input": [ 10, 15 ], "matches": "opus", "members": [ "claude-opus-5", "claude-opus-4-8", "claude-opus-4-7" ], "note": "every Opus version prices as Opus, which is why this table is keyed by family", "output": [ 50, 15 ], "role": "anchor" }, "opus-5-5": { "input": null, "matches": "opus-5-5", "measured": "no reference rate exists: the Shellac table (January 2026) predates Opus 5.5, so this row carries null input and output. Its rate is fitted like any non-anchor family in history/model-rates.json measured_rates.per_family.opus-5-5, and is withheld with a status sentence until the fits can identify it.", "members": [ "claude-opus-5-5" ], "note": "Claude Opus 5.5, its own family since 2026-09-23. Claude Code 2.1.280 resolves the `opus` alias to claude-opus-5-5, and it lists at 0.8x Opus 5's prices, so crediting it at Opus 5's rate would put a phantom change on the per-model figures if the meter charges it differently. tracker/credits.py family() picks the longest `matches` that is a substring of the model id, so claude-opus-5-5 lands here and claude-opus-5, -4-8 and -4-7 stay `opus`.", "output": null, "role": "reference" }, "sonnet": { "input": [ 6, 15 ], "matches": "sonnet", "measured": "measured relative to Opus in history/model-rates.json measured_rates.per_family.sonnet, above this row's 6/15 in every fit. The page divides by the measured rate and draws this one beside it.", "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5", "claude-sonnet-4-6" ], "output": [ 30, 15 ], "role": "reference" } }, "role": "reference", "source": "data/prices.json `_credits`, the reference table: rates from https://she-llac.com/claude-limits, a January 2026 reference, measured against in docs/findings-2026-09-20-reconciliation.md. The rates the page's per-model figures divide by are the measured ones in `measured_rates`, not these.", "used_in_pricing": "the Opus anchor, and the cache-read weight; every other per-model figure the page states divides by a measured rate (docs/findings-2026-09-20-measured-rates.md)" }, "sessions": { "claude-fable-5-1": { "cache_normalised": true, "credits_per_token_at_split": 0.0826464, "credits_per_token_at_split_interval": [ 0.06224582, 0.08933475 ], "derivation": "credits", "median_session_tokens": 5941216, "per_week": { "interval": [ 250.2, 495.2 ], "status": null, "value": 326.9 }, "per_window": { "interval": [ 54.4, 107.6 ], "status": null, "value": 71.1 }, "rate_source": "measured", "split": { "cache_read": 0.9748, "cache_write": 0.0218, "input": 0.0, "output": 0.004 }, "split_source": "history/passive.json `split`, the watched accounts' own token-class shares", "status": null, "tokens_per_window_at_split": { "interval": [ 323178259, 639533370 ], "status": null, "value": 422204011 }, "windows_per_week": 4.6 }, "claude-haiku-4-5": { "cache_normalised": true, "credits_per_token_at_split": 0.00557333, "credits_per_token_at_split_interval": null, "derivation": "credits", "median_session_tokens": 191635, "per_week": { "interval": [ 124345.6, 171451.5 ], "status": null, "value": 150284.5 }, "per_window": { "interval": [ 27031.7, 37272.1 ], "status": null, "value": 32670.5 }, "rate_source": "inferred", "split": { "cache_read": 0.9748, "cache_write": 0.0218, "input": 0.0, "output": 0.004 }, "split_source": "history/passive.json `split`, the watched accounts' own token-class shares", "status": null, "tokens_per_window_at_split": { "interval": [ 5180211962, 7142633254 ], "status": null, "value": 6260820754 }, "windows_per_week": 4.6 }, "claude-opus-4-7": { "cache_normalised": true, "credits_per_token_at_split": 0.02786667, "credits_per_token_at_split_interval": null, "derivation": "credits", "median_session_tokens": 150459, "per_week": { "interval": [ 31675.0, 43674.5 ], "status": null, "value": 38282.6 }, "per_window": { "interval": [ 6885.9, 9494.5 ], "status": null, "value": 8322.3 }, "rate_source": "reference", "split": { "cache_read": 0.9748, "cache_write": 0.0218, "input": 0.0, "output": 0.004 }, "split_source": "history/passive.json `split`, the watched accounts' own token-class shares", "status": null, "tokens_per_window_at_split": { "interval": [ 1036042392, 1428526651 ], "status": null, "value": 1252164151 }, "windows_per_week": 4.6 }, "claude-opus-4-8": { "cache_normalised": true, "credits_per_token_at_split": 0.02786667, "credits_per_token_at_split_interval": null, "derivation": "credits", "median_session_tokens": 9796, "per_week": { "interval": [ 486504.2, 670806.7 ], "status": null, "value": 587990.5 }, "per_window": { "interval": [ 105761.8, 145827.5 ], "status": null, "value": 127824.0 }, "rate_source": "reference", "split": { "cache_read": 0.9748, "cache_write": 0.0218, "input": 0.0, "output": 0.004 }, "split_source": "history/passive.json `split`, the watched accounts' own token-class shares", "status": null, "tokens_per_window_at_split": { "interval": [ 1036042392, 1428526651 ], "status": null, "value": 1252164151 }, "windows_per_week": 4.6 }, "claude-opus-5": { "cache_normalised": true, "credits_per_token_at_split": 0.02786667, "credits_per_token_at_split_interval": null, "derivation": "credits", "median_session_tokens": 5695310, "per_week": { "interval": [ 836.8, 1153.8 ], "status": null, "value": 1011.4 }, "per_window": { "interval": [ 181.9, 250.8 ], "status": null, "value": 219.9 }, "rate_source": "reference", "split": { "cache_read": 0.9748, "cache_write": 0.0218, "input": 0.0, "output": 0.004 }, "split_source": "history/passive.json `split`, the watched accounts' own token-class shares", "status": null, "tokens_per_window_at_split": { "interval": [ 1036042392, 1428526651 ], "status": null, "value": 1252164151 }, "windows_per_week": 4.6 }, "claude-opus-5-5": { "cache_normalised": true, "credits_per_token_at_split": 0.02229333, "credits_per_token_at_split_interval": null, "derivation": "credits", "median_session_tokens": 1855507, "per_week": { "interval": [ 3210.6, 4426.8 ], "status": null, "value": 3880.3 }, "per_window": { "interval": [ 698.0, 962.4 ], "status": null, "value": 843.5 }, "rate_source": "list_price_until_separable", "split": { "cache_read": 0.9748, "cache_write": 0.0218, "input": 0.0, "output": 0.004 }, "split_source": "history/passive.json `split`, the watched accounts' own token-class shares", "status": "Opus 5.5 is valued at its list price, 0.8x Opus; the fitted 0.78x Opus is not used, because the joint fit at its first use (span test: the new family's share of the work varies too little to separate its rate from the limit change: the rate's 95% interval runs 0.82x to 1.33x its base family's, wider than 1.5x end to end or against a search bound) cannot tell that rate apart from a five-hour limit change at that instant. The fitted rate takes over once that fit separates.", "tokens_per_window_at_split": { "interval": [ 1295052990, 1785658313 ], "status": null, "value": 1565205188 }, "windows_per_week": 4.6 }, "claude-sonnet-4-6": { "cache_normalised": true, "credits_per_token_at_split": 0.01400546, "credits_per_token_at_split_interval": [ 0.01238024, 0.01614664 ], "derivation": "credits", "median_session_tokens": 239177, "per_week": { "interval": [ 34388.9, 61841.9 ], "status": null, "value": 47916.7 }, "per_window": { "interval": [ 7475.9, 13443.9 ], "status": null, "value": 10416.7 }, "rate_source": "measured", "split": { "cache_read": 0.9748, "cache_write": 0.0218, "input": 0.0, "output": 0.004 }, "split_source": "history/passive.json `split`, the watched accounts' own token-class shares", "status": null, "tokens_per_window_at_split": { "interval": [ 1788052453, 3215469329 ], "status": null, "value": 2491430440 }, "windows_per_week": 4.6 }, "claude-sonnet-5": { "cache_normalised": true, "credits_per_token_at_split": 0.01400546, "credits_per_token_at_split_interval": [ 0.01238024, 0.01614664 ], "derivation": "credits", "median_session_tokens": 677566, "per_week": { "interval": [ 12139.1, 21829.8 ], "status": null, "value": 16914.3 }, "per_window": { "interval": [ 2638.9, 4745.6 ], "status": null, "value": 3677.0 }, "rate_source": "measured", "split": { "cache_read": 0.9748, "cache_write": 0.0218, "input": 0.0, "output": 0.004 }, "split_source": "history/passive.json `split`, the watched accounts' own token-class shares", "status": null, "tokens_per_window_at_split": { "interval": [ 1788052453, 3215469329 ], "status": null, "value": 2491430440 }, "windows_per_week": 4.6 } }, "window_credits": { "accounts": { "a1": { "interval": null, "n": 0, "value": null }, "a2": { "interval": [ 26214188, 31021353 ], "n": 11, "value": 29472827 }, "a3": { "interval": [ 16150580, 16150580 ], "n": 1, "value": 16150580 }, "a4": { "interval": null, "n": 0, "value": null } }, "after": { "interval": [ 16150580, 29472827 ], "n": 2, "value": 22811703 }, "before": { "interval": [ 26214188, 31021353 ], "n": 10, "value": 29351393 }, "cache_read_weight": 0.0, "cache_read_weight_range": [ 0, 0.015 ], "credits_per_pct": 348936, "current_method": "the pure-family cluster is split on cut_at by each stretch's own start. The after cluster states the current window once it holds 5 readings; below that the before cluster states it, scaled by the median five-hour window change across the cut over the accounts whose capture column can carry one. `current_source` names which of the two the published value and interval came from; `n` counts the whole cluster, and each side carries its own count. After that, every change measured on the two meters (`five_hour_on_meters`, the windows-per-week ratio across a change candidate; `measurable`, dated after cut_at) opens a new regime in `regimes`, from the candidate's own instant, whether it is published (`applies`) or withheld. Each such regime is measured in the family actually in use: its regime family is the family with the most pure clean stretches starting in it (`regime_family`, `n_regime_family`). A boundary the tracker could not measure (a change whose joint fit cannot separate the new family's rate from the limit change, or a withheld one: ADR 0001 rules 8 and 9) does not split the window cluster: the regimes it joins form one run, from the last measured boundary (the cut, or a change whose fit separates), and `run_from` names its first instant. A run of two or more regimes whose pure clean stretches, starting anywhere in it, hold 5 readings of its most common family states every regime in it with that family's direct median and spread (`unmeasured_boundary_run_cluster`); the 14 September regime's own rule above gives way to it. Where that family is not the anchor and the boundary opening the run has a five-hour change the meters measured (the change across the cut, or a separable change's g), the run's anchor-unit `value` and `interval`, and every earlier regime's figure in the run family's units, go through the bridge rate rather than the fitted one: the previous regime's anchor window times that change, over the run's direct window. The step at that boundary is then the meters' change. `bridge_rate`, `bridge_rate_interval` (the same over the run's highest and lowest reading) and `bridge_rate_source` are published on the run's first regime; the fitted rate stays published as the fitted figure, and other families still convert from the anchor at their own rates. Otherwise each regime is measured on its own: once its regime family holds 5 readings in the regime, the regime is their median tokens per 1% times 100, read straight off their token counts with no rate in it, published as `measured_value` and `measured_interval`. `value` and `interval` give the same window in the anchor family's tokens, converted at the two families' point rates where the regime family is not the anchor. Below that many readings the regime carries the previous regime's figure in the same family's units, and `measured_family` names the family the figure was measured in (`previous_regime_carried_fit_not_separable`), because the joint fit cannot yet separate the new family's rate from the five-hour limit change g or the change is withheld. Only where the joint fit does separate them and the change is published (`applies`) is the previous regime's figure scaled by g instead, each interval edge by g's same edge. The window interval is a spread of readings, not a standard error. The published value and interval are the newest regime's. Where the newest regime is measured in a family other than the anchor, that family's row in `per_family` is its direct reading, never a conversion. Known-date changes applied: from 2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00 (opus-5-5 first turn), +19.6%; from 2026-09-29T18:25:18.212000+00:00 (sonnet-5-5 first turn), window carried, joint fit not separable or change withheld, unless the regime's own family states it; from 2026-10-11T21:43:47.162000+00:00 (haiku-5-5 first turn), window carried, joint fit not separable or change withheld, unless the regime's own family states it.", "current_source": "previous_regime_carried_fit_not_separable", "cut_at": "2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00", "derivation": "credits", "five_hour_window_pct": -0.6, "interval": [ 28871048, 39808276 ], "method": "median credits per 1% of the five-hour meter over the current side of the pure-opus cluster taken from every watched account's passive stretch file, times 100 (`current_method` for which side that is). A stretch counts when it moved the meter at least 3%, carries tokens, does not overlap one of the tracker's own runs on its own account (a probe row or the effort-matrix run), and reads capture_status 'accepted'. The Max account 1 counts from 6 September, as its seven-day steps do. Every token in a pure-opus stretch is priced at a rate data/prices.json publishes, so the figure carries no fitted parameter. Cache writes at the input rate, cache reads at 0 of it.", "n": 12, "pure_family": "opus", "regimes": [ { "from": null, "interval": [ 26214188, 31021353 ], "measured_family": "opus", "measured_interval": [ 26214188, 31021353 ], "measured_value": 29351393, "n_regime_family": 10, "regime_family": "opus", "run_from": null, "source": "before_cluster", "until": "2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00", "value": 29351393 }, { "from": "2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00", "interval": [ 26056903, 30835225 ], "measured_family": "opus", "measured_interval": [ 26056903, 30835225 ], "measured_value": 29175285, "n_regime_family": 2, "regime_family": "opus", "run_from": null, "source": "before_cluster_scaled_by_five_hour_change", "until": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "value": 29175285 }, { "from": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "interval": [ 28871048, 39808276 ], "measured_family": "opus", "measured_interval": [ 28871048, 39808276 ], "measured_value": 34893641, "n_regime_family": 0, "regime_family": "opus", "run_from": null, "source": "previous_regime_scaled_by_known_date_change", "until": "2026-09-29T18:25:18.212000+00:00", "value": 34893641 }, { "from": "2026-09-29T18:25:18.212000+00:00", "interval": [ 28871048, 39808276 ], "measured_family": "opus", "measured_interval": [ 28871048, 39808276 ], "measured_value": 34893641, "n_regime_family": 0, "regime_family": "opus", "run_from": null, "source": "previous_regime_carried_fit_not_separable", "until": "2026-10-11T21:43:47.162000+00:00", "value": 34893641 }, { "from": "2026-10-11T21:43:47.162000+00:00", "interval": [ 28871048, 39808276 ], "measured_family": "opus", "measured_interval": [ 28871048, 39808276 ], "measured_value": 34893641, "n_regime_family": 0, "regime_family": "opus", "run_from": null, "source": "previous_regime_carried_fit_not_separable", "until": null, "value": 34893641 } ], "status": null, "value": 34893641 }, "window_credits_from_weekly": { "after": { "announced_weekly_cap_credits": 104166625, "from": "2026-09-13T21:30:00.476685+00:00", "to": "2026-10-13T07:40:00.490711+00:00", "value": 23045713, "weekly_cap_multiplier": 1.25, "windows_per_week_measured": 4.52, "windows_per_week_rounding_interval": [ 4.2188, 4.8669 ] }, "before": { "announced_weekly_cap_credits": 124999950, "from": "2026-08-15T00:20:00.078325+00:00", "to": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "value": 20798661, "weekly_cap_multiplier": 1.5, "windows_per_week_measured": 6.01, "windows_per_week_rounding_interval": [ 5.7621, 6.269 ] }, "derivation": "credits", "kind": "cross_check", "method": "the announced weekly cap -- the January baseline times the multiplier in force (x1.5 from May, x1.25 from 14 September) -- divided by this tracker's own measured windows per week for the regime either side of the certified change, each taken over the accounts with readings on both sides of their own step. It shares no input with window_credits, which is why it is a cross-check.", "status": null, "weekly_cap_baseline_credits": 83333300, "weekly_cap_baseline_source": { "as_of": "2026-01-25", "url": "https://she-llac.com/claude-limits" } }, "window_tokens": { "account_regimes": { "a1": [ { "from": null, "measured_family": "opus", "measured_window": null, "n_measured_window": 0, "n_weekly_days": 8, "n_window": 33, "n_wpw": 107, "per_week": 3071469481, "per_week_interval": [ 2864335534, 3235382172 ], "raw_windows_per_week_meters": 6.493, "seven_day_points": 67.0, "until": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "weekly_credits_per_pct": 1237944, "weekly_credits_per_pct_interval": [ 1154460, 1304009 ], "window": 585519302, "windows_per_week": 5.2457, "windows_per_week_meters": 6.3254, "windows_per_week_source": "weekly_over_window" }, { "from": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "measured_family": "opus", "measured_window": null, "n_measured_window": 0, "n_weekly_days": 5, "n_window": 26, "n_wpw": 33, "per_week": 2767136729, "per_week_interval": [ 2584034348, 3551338902 ], "raw_windows_per_week_meters": 4.9737, "seven_day_points": 81.0, "until": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "weekly_credits_per_pct": 1115284, "weekly_credits_per_pct_interval": [ 1041485, 1431354 ], "window": 607354851, "windows_per_week": 4.556, "windows_per_week_meters": 4.8766, "windows_per_week_source": "weekly_over_window" }, { "from": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "measured_family": "opus-5-5", "measured_window": null, "n_measured_window": 0, "n_weekly_days": 10, "n_window": 12, "n_wpw": 43, "per_week": 3586613624, "per_week_interval": [ 3398594156, 4071372330 ], "raw_windows_per_week_meters": 4.5636, "seven_day_points": 56.0, "until": null, "weekly_credits_per_pct": 1445571, "weekly_credits_per_pct_interval": [ 1369791, 1640951 ], "window": 871354189, "windows_per_week": 4.1161, "windows_per_week_meters": 4.4993, "windows_per_week_source": "weekly_over_window" } ], "a2": [ { "from": null, "measured_family": "opus", "measured_window": 688654675, "n_measured_window": 10, "n_weekly_days": 9, "n_window": 54, "n_wpw": 34, "per_week": 3404018269, "per_week_interval": [ 3121479036, 3626935258 ], "raw_windows_per_week_meters": 6.3947, "seven_day_points": 136.0, "until": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "weekly_credits_per_pct": 1371977, "weekly_credits_per_pct_interval": [ 1258100, 1461823 ], "window": 775242992, "windows_per_week": 4.3909, "windows_per_week_meters": 5.2527, "windows_per_week_source": "weekly_over_window" }, { "from": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "measured_family": "opus", "measured_window": 997181190, "n_measured_window": 1, "n_weekly_days": 7, "n_window": 30, "n_wpw": 37, "per_week": 3045147370, "per_week_interval": [ 2652320927, 3502283304 ], "raw_windows_per_week_meters": 4.7255, "seven_day_points": 94.0, "until": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "weekly_credits_per_pct": 1227335, "weekly_credits_per_pct_interval": [ 1069008, 1411582 ], "window": 849494351, "windows_per_week": 3.5847, "windows_per_week_meters": 4.4507, "windows_per_week_source": "weekly_over_window" }, { "from": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "measured_family": "opus-5-5", "measured_window": 1734016230, "n_measured_window": 3, "n_weekly_days": 16, "n_window": 30, "n_wpw": 79, "per_week": 2874877547, "per_week_interval": [ 2348130862, 3345789543 ], "raw_windows_per_week_meters": 4.4425, "seven_day_points": 69.0, "until": null, "weekly_credits_per_pct": 1158709, "weekly_credits_per_pct_interval": [ 946405, 1348508 ], "window": 829193581, "windows_per_week": 3.4671, "windows_per_week_meters": 4.2456, "windows_per_week_source": "weekly_over_window" } ], "a3": [ { "from": null, "measured_family": "opus", "measured_window": null, "n_measured_window": 0, "n_weekly_days": 0, "n_window": 0, "n_wpw": 0, "per_week": null, "per_week_interval": null, "raw_windows_per_week_meters": null, "seven_day_points": 0, "until": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "weekly_credits_per_pct": null, "weekly_credits_per_pct_interval": null, "window": null, "windows_per_week": null, "windows_per_week_meters": null, "windows_per_week_source": null }, { "from": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "measured_family": "opus", "measured_window": 893801980, "n_measured_window": 1, "n_weekly_days": 4, "n_window": 27, "n_wpw": 15, "per_week": 2988740671, "per_week_interval": [ 2678022267, 3254492401 ], "raw_windows_per_week_meters": 5.5, "seven_day_points": 96.0, "until": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "weekly_credits_per_pct": 1204601, "weekly_credits_per_pct_interval": [ 1079367, 1311711 ], "window": 621011615, "windows_per_week": 4.8127, "windows_per_week_meters": 4.8257, "windows_per_week_source": "weekly_over_window" }, { "from": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "measured_family": "opus-5-5", "measured_window": 1074288380, "n_measured_window": 26, "n_weekly_days": 15, "n_window": 60, "n_wpw": 53, "per_week": 3603259373, "per_week_interval": [ 3521578678, 3717345802 ], "raw_windows_per_week_meters": 7.2328, "seven_day_points": 100.0, "until": null, "weekly_credits_per_pct": 1452280, "weekly_credits_per_pct_interval": [ 1419359, 1498262 ], "window": 740506617, "windows_per_week": 4.8659, "windows_per_week_meters": 4.9062, "windows_per_week_source": "weekly_over_window" } ], "a4": [ { "from": null, "measured_family": "opus", "measured_window": null, "n_measured_window": 0, "n_weekly_days": 0, "n_window": 0, "n_wpw": 0, "per_week": null, "per_week_interval": null, "raw_windows_per_week_meters": null, "seven_day_points": 0, "until": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "weekly_credits_per_pct": null, "weekly_credits_per_pct_interval": null, "window": null, "windows_per_week": null, "windows_per_week_meters": null, "windows_per_week_source": null }, { "from": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "measured_family": "opus", "measured_window": null, "n_measured_window": 0, "n_weekly_days": 0, "n_window": 0, "n_wpw": 0, "per_week": null, "per_week_interval": null, "raw_windows_per_week_meters": null, "seven_day_points": 0, "until": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "weekly_credits_per_pct": null, "weekly_credits_per_pct_interval": null, "window": null, "windows_per_week": null, "windows_per_week_meters": null, "windows_per_week_source": null }, { "from": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "measured_family": "opus-5-5", "measured_window": null, "n_measured_window": 0, "n_weekly_days": 8, "n_window": 19, "n_wpw": 34, "per_week": 3761348972, "per_week_interval": [ 3076319955, 4125483033 ], "raw_windows_per_week_meters": 4.5738, "seven_day_points": 44.0, "until": null, "weekly_credits_per_pct": 1515997, "weekly_credits_per_pct_interval": [ 1239899, 1662760 ], "window": 958384562, "windows_per_week": 3.9247, "windows_per_week_meters": 4.2076, "windows_per_week_source": "weekly_over_window" } ] }, "accounts": { "a1": { "all": { "interval": null, "status": "contributed no clean pure-opus stretch", "value": null }, "n": 0, "per_class": null }, "a2": { "all": { "interval": [ 593393027, 997181190 ], "status": null, "value": 705924590 }, "n": 11, "per_class": { "cache_read": { "interval": [ 568968109, 976786310 ], "value": 679369240 }, "cache_write": { "interval": [ 14430920, 25454010 ], "value": 22501942 }, "input": { "interval": [ 7127, 10850 ], "value": 8640 }, "output": { "interval": [ 3643590, 5953590 ], "value": 4163808 } } }, "a3": { "all": { "interval": [ 893801980, 893801980 ], "status": null, "value": 893801980 }, "n": 1, "per_class": { "cache_read": { "interval": [ 882121630, 882121630 ], "value": 882121630 }, "cache_write": { "interval": [ 8536460, 8536460 ], "value": 8536460 }, "input": { "interval": [ 7510, 7510 ], "value": 7510 }, "output": { "interval": [ 3136380, 3136380 ], "value": 3136380 } } }, "a4": { "all": { "interval": null, "status": "contributed no clean pure-opus stretch", "value": null }, "n": 0, "per_class": null } }, "after": { "interval": [ 893801980, 997181190 ], "n": 2, "value": 945491585 }, "all": { "interval": [ 507518654, 1437900068 ], "status": null, "value": 818689205 }, "anchor_credits_per_token": 0.04030462197687973, "as_of": "2026-09-21T15:05:39+00:00", "before": { "interval": [ 593393027, 808196690 ], "n": 10, "value": 688654675 }, "cache_read_share": { "interval": [ 0.9553, 0.9869 ], "value": 0.9617 }, "current_method": "the pure-family cluster is split on cut_at by each stretch's own start. The after cluster states the current window once it holds 5 readings; below that the before cluster states it, scaled by the median five-hour window change across the cut over the accounts whose capture column can carry one. `current_source` names which of the two the published value and interval came from; `n` counts the whole cluster, and each side carries its own count. After that, every change measured on the two meters (`five_hour_on_meters`, the windows-per-week ratio across a change candidate; `measurable`, dated after cut_at) opens a new regime in `regimes`, from the candidate's own instant, whether it is published (`applies`) or withheld. Each such regime is measured in the family actually in use: its regime family is the family with the most pure clean stretches starting in it (`regime_family`, `n_regime_family`). A boundary the tracker could not measure (a change whose joint fit cannot separate the new family's rate from the limit change, or a withheld one: ADR 0001 rules 8 and 9) does not split the window cluster: the regimes it joins form one run, from the last measured boundary (the cut, or a change whose fit separates), and `run_from` names its first instant. A run of two or more regimes whose pure clean stretches, starting anywhere in it, hold 5 readings of its most common family states every regime in it with that family's direct median and spread (`unmeasured_boundary_run_cluster`); the 14 September regime's own rule above gives way to it. Where that family is not the anchor and the boundary opening the run has a five-hour change the meters measured (the change across the cut, or a separable change's g), the run's anchor-unit `value` and `interval`, and every earlier regime's figure in the run family's units, go through the bridge rate rather than the fitted one: the previous regime's anchor window times that change, over the run's direct window. The step at that boundary is then the meters' change. `bridge_rate`, `bridge_rate_interval` (the same over the run's highest and lowest reading) and `bridge_rate_source` are published on the run's first regime; the fitted rate stays published as the fitted figure, and other families still convert from the anchor at their own rates. Otherwise each regime is measured on its own: once its regime family holds 5 readings in the regime, the regime is their median tokens per 1% times 100, read straight off their token counts with no rate in it, published as `measured_value` and `measured_interval`. `value` and `interval` give the same window in the anchor family's tokens, converted at the two families' point rates where the regime family is not the anchor. Below that many readings the regime carries the previous regime's figure in the same family's units, and `measured_family` names the family the figure was measured in (`previous_regime_carried_fit_not_separable`), because the joint fit cannot yet separate the new family's rate from the five-hour limit change g or the change is withheld. Only where the joint fit does separate them and the change is published (`applies`) is the previous regime's figure scaled by g instead, each interval edge by g's same edge. The window interval is a spread of readings, not a standard error. The published value and interval are the newest regime's. Where the newest regime is measured in a family other than the anchor, that family's row in `per_family` is its direct reading, never a conversion. Known-date changes applied: from 2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00 (opus-5-5 first turn), +19.6%; from 2026-09-29T18:25:18.212000+00:00 (sonnet-5-5 first turn), window carried, joint fit not separable or change withheld, unless the regime's own family states it; from 2026-10-11T21:43:47.162000+00:00 (haiku-5-5 first turn), window carried, joint fit not separable or change withheld, unless the regime's own family states it.", "current_source": "unmeasured_boundary_run_cluster", "cut_at": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "derivation": "credits", "family_values_method": "`family_value` and `family_interval` on each regime are its window in `measured_family` tokens: the regime's own direct figure where it was measured in that family, else its anchor-unit figure over `per_family[measured_family].history_rate`.", "five_hour_window_pct": -0.6, "measured_family": "opus-5-5", "method": "median over the pure-opus clean stretches of the tokens the stretch carried per 1% of the five-hour meter, times 100, taken per token class and over all four classes together -- `all` over the current side of the cut alone (`current_method`), `per_class` over the whole cluster, and both sides published beside each. The interval is the spread of the readings themselves -- per account its own lowest and highest per-stretch value, pooled the union of the account intervals -- and not a confidence interval. No credit rate and no class weight enters the pure-opus figure: it is the stretch's own token counts over its own meter movement. Every other family is a conversion of it at the two families' rates (`conversion`), and a family whose rate is a status sentence publishes no number. A regime after a known-date change is measured the same way in its own regime family (`measured_family`, `current_method`), and that family's row is its direct reading.", "n": 12, "per_class": { "cache_read": { "after": { "interval": [ 882121630, 976786310 ], "n": 2, "value": 929453970 }, "before": { "interval": [ 568968109, 780801820 ], "n": 10, "value": 662072730 }, "interval": [ 568968109, 976786310 ], "value": 684913330 }, "cache_write": { "after": { "interval": [ 8536460, 14430920 ], "n": 2, "value": 11483690 }, "before": { "interval": [ 20693700, 25454010 ], "n": 10, "value": 22727806 }, "interval": [ 8536460, 25454010 ], "value": 22313751 }, "input": { "after": { "interval": [ 7510, 10370 ], "n": 2, "value": 8940 }, "before": { "interval": [ 7127, 10850 ], "n": 10, "value": 8616 }, "interval": [ 7127, 10850 ], "value": 8616 }, "output": { "after": { "interval": [ 3136380, 5953590 ], "n": 2, "value": 4544985 }, "before": { "interval": [ 3643590, 4994170 ], "n": 10, "value": 4137009 }, "interval": [ 3136380, 5953590 ], "value": 4137009 } }, "per_family": { "fable": { "all": { "interval": [ 158313015, 644525453 ], "status": null, "value": 276045170 }, "conversion": "the Opus window tokens times the Opus input rate over the measured Fable input rate, at the same token-class mix (`per_class` above, cache reads at the published cache-read weight); the interval combines the window interval with the rate interval.", "measured_directly": false, "rate_source": "measured" }, "haiku": { "all": { "interval": [ 2537593270, 7189500340 ], "status": null, "value": 4093446025 }, "conversion": "the Opus window tokens times the Opus input rate over the inferred Haiku input rate, at the same token-class mix (`per_class` above, cache reads at the published cache-read weight); the interval combines the window interval with the rate interval.", "measured_directly": false, "rate_source": "inferred" }, "opus": { "all": { "interval": [ 507518654, 1437900068 ], "status": null, "value": 818689205 }, "conversion": null, "measured_directly": false, "rate_source": "anchor" }, "opus-5-5": { "all": { "interval": [ 676457510, 1916537040 ], "status": null, "value": 1091208090 }, "conversion": null, "history_rate": { "interval": [ 0.4272, 1.2103 ], "source": "derived: the rate that makes the step at 2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00 equal the five-hour change the meters measured there (+19.6%): the previous regime's opus window times that change, over the run's direct opus-5-5 window; its interval is the same over the run's highest and lowest reading", "times_anchor": 0.7503 }, "measured_directly": true, "rate_source": "list" }, "sonnet": { "all": { "interval": [ 875900427, 3236567945 ], "status": null, "value": 1628945538 }, "conversion": "the Opus window tokens times the Opus input rate over the measured Sonnet input rate, at the same token-class mix (`per_class` above, cache reads at the published cache-read weight); the interval combines the window interval with the rate interval.", "measured_directly": false, "rate_source": "measured" } }, "per_regime_method": "The regimes are the window's own (`regimes`): the 14 September weekly change and every change measured on the meters, so every weekly and every five-hour boundary. `per_week_regimes` states each regime's week directly on the seven-day meter: the credits per 1% of the seven-day meter (`weekly_credits_per_pct`), from every one-point seven-day step of every account lying wholly in the regime (`weekly_meter.seven_day_steps`, tiled between exact crossings; harness runs, cloud sessions and steps over stretches the capture check withheld out, the personal account from 6 September), each step's own tokens valued as `across_cut` values a stretch, pooled meter-weighted (every account's credits over every account's seven-day points), times 100, in the window's tokens through the anchor's credits per token at the published mix (`anchor_credits_per_token`). Its interval resamples each account's whole UTC days. No fitted coefficient enters it. A step belongs to the regime it lies in, the weekly change reaching each account at its own certified step. `windows_per_week` is derived, never measured: the week over the regime's window (`windows_per_week_source` `weekly_over_window`), its interval the week's ends over the window's opposite ends. The meter ratio is published beside it for reference only: `windows_per_week_meters`, five-hour over seven-day points in the same steps, and `windows_per_week_pooled`, five-hour over seven-day movement pooled over every account's `weekly_windows.max20.by_window` readings in the regime, with its rounding interval, both with each step's or window's five-hour points over its headless inflation (ADR 0001 rule 16), the meter's own beside them as `raw_windows_per_week_meters` and `raw_windows_per_week_pooled`. A change the tracker withholds (ADR 0001 rule 9 on both direct measurements: `applies` false) opens no regime here or in `account_regimes`: the regime it would have opened is pooled with the one before, one row from the earlier regime's start to the later one's end, its week over every step in both, and its window the newest of the pooled regimes' windows (they carry one value while nothing measured steps between them). A change certified on the weekly limit alone opens a row here and leaves the window carried, and with it the windows per week (`windows_per_week_source` `carried_across_withheld_window`): a carried window is not measured unchanged, so the week over it would draw the whole weekly change as a windows-per-week step. Each row's week is a level pooled over the accounts with steps in it, while a change is certified on each account against itself, so every row before a change certified on the weekly limit is scaled to make the step there the certified change (`week_bridge`: the factor and the row's direct value), as the window's history is bridged; the newest row is its own direct level. The 14 September boundary is bridged the same way to the direct weekly test's combined change there, each account against itself (`five_hour_window_credits.direct_tests.weekly_change`), certified there or not: an account whose readings start after the change never moves that step (ADR 0001 rule 20). `per_week` is the newest regime's figure, and every family's week moves from its window the way the anchor's does. `account_regimes` gives each account's own figures in each regime and never another account's: its week from its own steps the same way (`per_week`), its window, and `windows_per_week` its week over its window (carried across a withheld window change as the pooled row's is). Its window, in anchor units, is the regime's window times the account's median credits per 1% of the five-hour meter over its own clean stretches lying wholly in the regime, any family, valued as `across_cut` values them, over the same median pooled across every account's such stretches (`n_window` the account's count), so the rates only weigh sessions against each other inside one regime and the pool's median account sits at the regime's window. `measured_window` is the account's direct reading beside it: the median tokens per 1% times 100 of its own pure stretches of the regime's `regime_family` (named on the row as `measured_family`, counted in `n_measured_window`), with no rate in it. For regimes stated by one run's cluster, both medians are over the stretches lying wholly in the run, and every regime of the run carries the same readings. `windows_per_week_meters` is its own five-hour over seven-day readings, for reference. A figure with no reading behind it is null, and so is anything derived from it.", "per_week": { "all": { "interval": [ 3260004628, 3649490928 ], "status": null, "value": 3438818609 }, "per_family": { "fable": { "all": { "interval": [ 1016910723, 1635850673 ], "status": null, "value": 1159498943 } }, "haiku": { "all": { "interval": [ 16300023140, 18247454640 ], "status": null, "value": 17194093045 } }, "opus": { "all": { "interval": [ 3260004628, 3649490928 ], "status": null, "value": 3438818609 } }, "opus-5-5": { "all": { "interval": [ 4345169573, 4864305035 ], "status": null, "value": 4583505759 } }, "sonnet": { "all": { "interval": [ 5626274863, 8214635785 ], "status": null, "value": 6842215819 } } }, "status": null, "windows_per_week": { "interval": [ 2.2672, 7.1909 ], "source": "per_week_regimes, newest regime (weekly_over_window)", "value": 4.2004 } }, "per_week_regimes": [ { "from": null, "interval": [ 3049096003, 3400661723 ], "n_weekly_days": 17, "n_windows_per_week": 141, "per_week_factor": null, "per_week_source": "seven_day_meter_direct", "raw_windows_per_week_meters": 5.8621, "raw_windows_per_week_pooled": 6.4638, "seven_day_points": 203.0, "until": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "value": 3248228785, "week_bridge": { "at": [ "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00" ], "direct_value": 3294260787, "factor": 0.986026 }, "weekly_accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "weekly_credits_per_pct": 1327739, "weekly_credits_per_pct_interval": [ 1246342, 1390048 ], "window": 688654675, "windows_per_week": 4.7167, "windows_per_week_interval": [ 3.7728, 5.7308 ], "windows_per_week_meters": 5.1448, "windows_per_week_pooled": 6.0063, "windows_per_week_pooled_interval": [ 5.7621, 6.269 ], "windows_per_week_source": "weekly_over_window" }, { "from": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "interval": [ 2729699194, 3192886165 ], "n_weekly_days": 16, "n_windows_per_week": 85, "per_week_factor": null, "per_week_source": "seven_day_meter_direct", "raw_windows_per_week_meters": 4.9668, "raw_windows_per_week_pooled": 5.0545, "seven_day_points": 271.0, "until": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "value": 2926654135, "week_bridge": { "at": [ "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00" ], "direct_value": 2942070230, "factor": 0.99476 }, "weekly_accounts": [ "a1", "a2", "a3" ], "weekly_credits_per_pct": 1185790, "weekly_credits_per_pct_interval": [ 1105990, 1293659 ], "window": 684522747, "windows_per_week": 4.2755, "windows_per_week_interval": [ 3.3979, 5.4132 ], "windows_per_week_meters": 4.6835, "windows_per_week_pooled": 4.7217, "windows_per_week_pooled_interval": [ 4.4708, 4.997 ], "windows_per_week_source": "weekly_over_window" }, { "from": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "interval": [ 3260004628, 3649490928 ], "n_weekly_days": 49, "n_windows_per_week": 209, "per_week_factor": null, "per_week_source": "seven_day_meter_direct", "raw_windows_per_week_meters": 5.4052, "raw_windows_per_week_pooled": 5.4232, "seven_day_points": 269.0, "until": null, "value": 3438818609, "weekly_accounts": [ "a1", "a2", "a3", "a4" ], "weekly_credits_per_pct": 1386003, "weekly_credits_per_pct_interval": [ 1313933, 1470914 ], "window": 818689205, "windows_per_week": 4.2004, "windows_per_week_interval": [ 2.2672, 7.1909 ], "windows_per_week_meters": 4.419, "windows_per_week_pooled": 4.5014, "windows_per_week_pooled_interval": [ 4.1428, 4.9158 ], "windows_per_week_source": "weekly_over_window" } ], "regimes": [ { "family_interval": [ 790874353, 1077164721 ], "family_value": 917839098, "from": null, "interval": [ 593393027, 808196690 ], "measured_family": "opus", "measured_interval": [ 593393027, 808196690 ], "measured_value": 688654675, "n_regime_family": 10, "regime_family": "opus", "run_from": null, "source": "before_cluster", "until": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "value": 688654675 }, { "family_interval": [ 786129107, 1070701733 ], "family_value": 912332063, "from": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "interval": [ 589832669, 803347510 ], "measured_family": "opus", "measured_interval": [ 589832669, 803347510 ], "measured_value": 684522747, "n_regime_family": 2, "regime_family": "opus", "run_from": null, "source": "before_cluster_scaled_by_five_hour_change", "until": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "value": 684522747 }, { "bridge_rate": 0.7503, "bridge_rate_interval": [ 0.4272, 1.2103 ], "bridge_rate_source": "derived: the rate that makes the step at 2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00 equal the five-hour change the meters measured there (+19.6%): the previous regime's opus window times that change, over the run's direct opus-5-5 window; its interval is the same over the run's highest and lowest reading", "family_interval": [ 676457510, 1916537040 ], "family_value": 1091208090, "from": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "interval": [ 507518654, 1437900068 ], "measured_family": "opus-5-5", "measured_interval": [ 676457510, 1916537040 ], "measured_value": 1091208090, "n_regime_family": 29, "regime_family": "opus-5-5", "run_from": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "source": "unmeasured_boundary_run_cluster", "until": "2026-09-29T18:25:18.212000+00:00", "value": 818689205 }, { "family_interval": [ 676457510, 1916537040 ], "family_value": 1091208090, "from": "2026-09-29T18:25:18.212000+00:00", "interval": [ 507518654, 1437900068 ], "measured_family": "opus-5-5", "measured_interval": [ 676457510, 1916537040 ], "measured_value": 1091208090, "n_regime_family": 29, "regime_family": "opus-5-5", "run_from": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "source": "unmeasured_boundary_run_cluster", "until": "2026-10-11T21:43:47.162000+00:00", "value": 818689205 }, { "family_interval": [ 676457510, 1916537040 ], "family_value": 1091208090, "from": "2026-10-11T21:43:47.162000+00:00", "interval": [ 507518654, 1437900068 ], "measured_family": "opus-5-5", "measured_interval": [ 676457510, 1916537040 ], "measured_value": 1091208090, "n_regime_family": 29, "regime_family": "opus-5-5", "run_from": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "source": "unmeasured_boundary_run_cluster", "until": null, "value": 818689205 } ], "selection": "A stretch counts when it moved the meter at least 3%, carries tokens, does not overlap one of the tracker's own runs on its own account (a probe row or the effort-matrix run), and reads capture_status 'accepted'. The Max account 1 counts from 6 September, as its seven-day steps do.", "split_at": "2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00" } }, "effort": { "claude-fable-5-1": { "high": 21694, "low": 17655, "max": 104285, "medium": 18668, "xhigh": 33329 }, "claude-opus-5": { "high": 22412, "low": 17377, "max": 86713, "medium": 18899, "xhigh": 27144 }, "claude-opus-5-5": { "high": 21686, "low": 18905, "max": 68904, "medium": 20945, "xhigh": 31721 }, "claude-sonnet-5": { "high": 25572, "low": 41881, "max": 131151, "medium": 22742, "xhigh": 27259 }, "claude-sonnet-5-5": { "high": 18432, "low": 17617, "max": 57369, "medium": 17907, "xhigh": 21369 } }, "effort_usd": { "claude-fable-5-1": { "high": 0.31052, "low": 0.10872, "max": 1.507449, "medium": 0.15922, "xhigh": 0.89227 }, "claude-opus-5": { "high": 0.220604, "low": 0.07671, "max": 0.498922, "medium": 0.107285, "xhigh": 0.319185 }, "claude-opus-5-5": { "high": 0.116348, "low": 0.056068, "max": 1.055888, "medium": 0.097548, "xhigh": 0.312228 }, "claude-sonnet-5": { "high": 0.057684, "low": 0.017204, "max": 0.280004, "medium": 0.026984, "xhigh": 0.074554 }, "claude-sonnet-5-5": { "high": 0.029104, "low": 0.024354, "max": 0.418444, "medium": 0.023824, "xhigh": 0.058544 } }, "events": [ { "announced": { "also_quoted": "Starting September 14, we're permanently raising standard weekly limits in Claude Code by 25% for Pro, Max, Team, and seat-based Enterprise plans", "announced_change_pct": -17, "date": "2026-09-14", "quote": "Compared to today, this works out to a 17% reduction in weekly limits on Claude Code", "scope": "weekly", "source": "Anthropic on X, quoted by BleepingComputer; recorded in docs/findings-2026-09-20-reconciliation.md" }, "at": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "attribution": "observed_account_metric_change_dated_from_per_account_onsets", "change_pct": -9.4, "confirmation": { "at": "2026-09-05", "evidence_points": 435, "seven_day_pct": 876.0 }, "date": "2026-09-13", "direction": "decreased", "evidence": { "certifying_accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "date_rule": "earliest_account", "detector_percent": -22, "excluded_accounts": { "a3": "readings_only_after_the_change", "a4": "readings_only_after_the_change" }, "paired_accounts_change_interval_pct": [ -33.1, -7.95 ], "paired_accounts_change_pct": -21.68, "per_account_steps": { "a1": { "after": 4.7538, "before": 6.3254, "change_interval_pct": [ -35.19, -12.48 ], "change_pct": -24.85, "interval": [ "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "2026-09-13T21:30:00.476685+00:00" ] }, "a2": { "after": 4.3429, "before": 5.2527, "change_interval_pct": [ -30.26, -1.67 ], "change_pct": -17.32, "interval": [ "2026-09-13T22:45:34+00:00", "2026-09-14T03:45:24+00:00" ] } }, "pooled_detector": { "boundaries": [ "2026-09-05T06:00:00.403811+00:00" ], "date": "2026-09-05" }, "rule": "ADR 0001 rule 17", "single_account": false }, "evidence_quality": "certified", "five_hour_window_credits": { "after_until": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "cut_at": "2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00", "direct_tests": { "at": "2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00", "certified_on": [], "method": "The 14 September weekly change, found by the weekly detector on the windows-per-week ratio, tested on the two direct measurements exactly as every candidate is (`five_hour_on_meters`): the five-hour window change, the known-date test at cut_at with its before side open and its after side to the first candidate after it; and the weekly limit change on the seven-day steps, each account split at its own certified weekly step where it has one (the change reaches each account at its own seven-day reset), else at cut_at. Each is combined by inverse variance and certified under ADR 0001 rule 9 (plan-wide, interval excluding no change). These are published with the event; the 14 September boundary itself is the weekly detector's certified step and is not re-decided by them.", "weekly_change": { "accounts_combined": [ "a1", "a2" ], "certified": false, "change_pct": -9.9, "interval_excludes_no_change": false, "interval_pct": [ -22.0, 4.1 ], "per_account": { "a1": { "change_pct": -9.1, "combined": true, "days_after": 5, "days_before": 19, "df": 22, "interval_pct": [ -29.4, 17.0 ], "level_after": 1172138, "level_before": 1289265, "log_ratio": -0.095243, "n_after": 94, "n_before": 155, "se": 0.121769, "weight": 0.3435 }, "a2": { "change_pct": -10.3, "combined": true, "days_after": 7, "days_before": 9, "df": 14, "interval_pct": [ -25.7, 8.3 ], "level_after": 1227335, "level_before": 1368255, "log_ratio": -0.108691, "n_after": 94, "n_before": 138, "se": 0.088075, "weight": 0.6565 }, "a3": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 97, "n_before": 0 }, "a4": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 0 } }, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "estimator": "the combined change in credits per 1% of the seven-day meter, each account against itself, weights 1 / se squared", "reason": "without a1 it reads -10.3% [-25.7, 8.3]; without a2 it reads -9.1% [-29.4, 17]: the -9.9% does not hold with each account left out, so it is not plan-wide", "state": "failed", "without": { "a1": { "change_pct": -10.3, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -25.7, 8.3 ] }, "a2": { "change_pct": -9.1, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -29.4, 17.0 ] } } }, "unit": "credits per 1% of the seven-day meter" }, "window_change": { "accounts_combined": [ "a1", "a2" ], "certified": false, "change_pct": 3.2, "interval_excludes_no_change": false, "interval_pct": [ -1.9, 8.5 ], "per_account": { "a1": { "change_pct": 3.2, "combined": true, "interval_pct": [ -3.9, 10.9 ], "n_after": 45, "n_before": 37, "weight": 0.5077 }, "a2": { "change_pct": 3.1, "combined": true, "interval_pct": [ -4.1, 10.8 ], "n_after": 41, "n_before": 78, "weight": 0.4923 }, "a3": { "change_pct": null, "combined": false, "interval_pct": null, "n_after": 52, "n_before": 0 } }, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "estimator": "the combined change in credits per 1% of the five-hour meter, each account against itself, weights 1 / se squared", "reason": "without a1 it reads +3.1% [-4.1, 10.8]; without a2 it reads +3.2% [-3.9, 10.9]: the +3.2% does not hold with each account left out, so it is not plan-wide", "state": "failed", "without": { "a1": { "change_pct": 3.1, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -4.1, 10.8 ] }, "a2": { "change_pct": 3.2, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -3.9, 10.9 ] } } }, "unit": "credits per 1% of the five-hour meter" } }, "fable_rate_held": null, "method": "median credits per 1% over the stretches the rate fits run over (capture test on every account, the personal account from 6 September, no stretch that spans the cut), split on the announced change, every stretch priced at the pooled fit's rates so the two medians are comparable to each other. An account whose n_with_capture is 0 has no usable capture column, so its meter movement includes work this host never saw and its level reads low.", "per_account": { "a1": { "after": 221166, "before": 228864, "change_pct": -3.4, "n_after": 26, "n_before": 33, "n_with_capture": 83 }, "a2": { "after": 309340, "before": 303022, "change_pct": 2.1, "n_after": 30, "n_before": 54, "n_with_capture": 116 }, "a3": { "after": 226139, "before": null, "change_pct": null, "n_after": 27, "n_before": 0, "n_with_capture": 89 }, "a4": { "after": null, "before": null, "change_pct": null, "n_after": 0, "n_before": 0, "n_with_capture": 24 } }, "rates_used": { "cache_read_weight": 0.009725, "output_multiplier": 5.0, "source": "pooled_fit", "times_opus": { "fable": 2.9658, "haiku": 0.3674, "haiku-5-5": 0.02, "opus": 1.0, "opus-5-5": 0.8, "sonnet": 0.5026, "sonnet-5-5": 0.4 }, "why": "every family at the pooled fit's own rate, Opus the unit, and every cache read at its fitted weight: the same rates on both sides of the cut, measured on the same stretches. The fit separates Fable's rate either side of the cut and finds no change in it." }, "ratio_route": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "combined": { "weekly": { "certified": false, "change_pct": -9.9, "interval_excludes_no_change": false, "interval_pct": [ -22.0, 4.1 ], "log_ratio": -0.104072, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "estimator": "weekly, each account against itself, at the weekly figure's inverse-variance weights", "reason": "without a1 it reads -10.3% [-25.7, 8.3]; without a2 it reads -9.1% [-29.4, 17]: the -9.9% does not hold with each account left out, so it is not plan-wide", "state": "failed", "without": { "a1": { "change_pct": -10.3, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -25.7, 8.3 ] }, "a2": { "change_pct": -9.1, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -29.4, 17.0 ] } } } }, "window": { "certified": false, "change_pct": 5.1, "interval_excludes_no_change": false, "interval_pct": [ -9.9, 22.5 ], "log_ratio": 0.049708, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "estimator": "window, each account against itself, at the weekly figure's inverse-variance weights", "reason": "without a1 it reads +3.2% [-14.3, 24.2]; without a2 it reads +8.9% [-19.5, 47.4]: the +5.1% does not hold with each account left out, so it is not plan-wide", "state": "failed", "without": { "a1": { "change_pct": 3.2, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -14.3, 24.2 ] }, "a2": { "change_pct": 8.9, "holds": false, "interval_pct": [ -19.5, 47.4 ] } } } }, "windows_per_week": { "certified": true, "change_pct": -14.3, "interval_excludes_no_change": true, "interval_pct": [ -19.0, -9.3 ], "log_ratio": -0.15378, "plan_wide": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "estimator": "windows_per_week, each account against itself, at the weekly figure's inverse-variance weights", "reason": null, "state": "passed", "without": { "a1": { "change_pct": -13.0, "holds": true, "interval_pct": [ -18.6, -7.0 ] }, "a2": { "change_pct": -16.5, "holds": true, "interval_pct": [ -25.5, -6.5 ] } } } } }, "estimator_method": "The 14 September weekly change and its two factors, each account against itself, on one set of readings: the direct weekly test's own clean seven-day steps on its own sides (`credits.cut_weekly_steps`). On those steps the weekly limit (credits per seven-day point, the measured figure) is the window (credits per five-hour point, each step's five-hour points over its headless inflation, ADR 0001 rule 16) times windows per week (five-hour over seven-day points, the derived quotient) exactly, per account. Each has its own whole-UTC-day bootstrap t interval on the same days. The accounts are combined at one set of weights, the weekly figure's inverse variances, so the combined log changes add up exactly too; each combined interval is a t interval on its own weighted standard error. Each combined change is tested as every direct change is (ADR 0001 rule 9: each account left out in turn, and the interval excluding no change) (ADR 0001 rule 20).", "method": "The 14 September weekly change read the second way, as windows per week times the window, each account against itself, on the direct weekly test's own readings: its clean seven-day steps on its own sides (`cut_weekly_sides`), valued as it values them. On those steps the weekly limit (credits per 1% of the seven-day meter, measured directly) is the window (credits per 1% of the five-hour meter, each step's five-hour points over its headless inflation, ADR 0001 rule 16) times windows per week (five-hour over seven-day points, the derived quotient), exactly, per account and, at the weekly figure's weights, combined: the route is the direct weekly change and its two factors, never a weekly figure built from them (`weekly_meter.reconcile`, ADR 0001 rule 20). Before rule 20 the windows-per-week factor was read on five-hour meter windows and the window on stretches, two other kinds of reading over other hours, and the route stood 4 to 7 points from the direct figure (docs/findings-2026-10-08-14sep-reconcile.md).", "per_account": { "a1": { "after_from": "2026-09-13T21:30:00.476685+00:00", "after_until": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "before_from": "2026-08-14T17:00:00+00:00", "before_until": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "days_after": 5, "days_before": 19, "identity_gap": 0.0, "n_after": 94, "n_before": 155, "weekly": { "change_pct": -9.1, "df": 22, "interval_pct": [ -29.4, 17.0 ], "level_after": 1172138, "level_before": 1289265, "log_ratio": -0.095243, "se": 0.121769 }, "weight": 0.3435, "window": { "change_pct": 8.9, "df": 22, "interval_pct": [ -19.5, 47.4 ], "level_after": 237991, "level_before": 218509, "log_ratio": 0.085406, "se": 0.145827 }, "windows_per_week": { "change_pct": -16.5, "df": 22, "interval_pct": [ -25.5, -6.5 ], "level_after": 4.9251, "level_before": 5.9003, "log_ratio": -0.180648, "se": 0.05487 } }, "a2": { "after_from": "2026-09-14T03:45:24+00:00", "after_until": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "before_from": "2026-08-14T17:00:00+00:00", "before_until": "2026-09-13T22:45:34+00:00", "days_after": 7, "days_before": 9, "identity_gap": 0.0, "n_after": 94, "n_before": 138, "weekly": { "change_pct": -10.3, "df": 14, "interval_pct": [ -25.7, 8.3 ], "level_after": 1227335, "level_before": 1368255, "log_ratio": -0.108691, "se": 0.088075 }, "weight": 0.6565, "window": { "change_pct": 3.2, "df": 14, "interval_pct": [ -14.3, 24.2 ], "level_after": 283194, "level_before": 274541, "log_ratio": 0.031033, "se": 0.086564 }, "windows_per_week": { "change_pct": -13.0, "df": 14, "interval_pct": [ -18.6, -7.0 ], "level_after": 4.3339, "level_before": 4.9838, "log_ratio": -0.139725, "se": 0.031078 } } }, "unit": "credits per 1% of the seven-day meter" }, "resolved": false, "unit": "credits per 1% of the five-hour meter", "unresolved": "a stable account-specific scale cancels out of any within-account before/after ratio, so these five-hour credit readings cannot separate a change in the five-hour window from a change in the weekly cap on their own -- that needs an independent debit or allowance observation, which no committed stretch carries. See the windows-per-week ratio note on the event for what these same accounts' meters do identify." }, "interval_pct": [ -40.7, 43.5 ], "kind": "change", "label": "Observed windows per week fell about 9% around 2026-09-13 to 2026-09-14", "legacy_uncertain": false, "meter_attribution": "unresolved", "metric": "windows_per_week", "model": "all", "observation_scope": "account", "onset": { "earliest": "2026-09-13", "from_windows": { "earliest": "2026-09-05", "latest": "2026-09-05" }, "latest": "2026-09-14" }, "percent": 9, "provisional": false, "rounding_interval_after": [ 4.2188, 4.8669 ], "rounding_interval_before": [ 5.7621, 6.269 ], "scope": "weekly", "tokens_per_week_change": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "direction": "decreased", "five_hour_accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "five_hour_unit": "interactive_equivalent", "five_hour_window_pct": 5.1, "method": "each account against itself: its own change in credits per 1% of the seven-day meter, measured directly on its clean seven-day steps either side (the direct weekly test's readings), with its two factors read on the same steps: the window (credits per 1% of the five-hour meter, five-hour points over their headless inflation) and windows per week (five-hour over seven-day points, the quotient). Combined at the weekly figure's inverse-variance weights (`five_hour_window_credits.ratio_route`, ADR 0001 rule 20). signed_pct is the direct weekly change; (1 + windows_per_week_pct / 100) x (1 + five_hour_window_pct / 100) - 1 reproduces it up to rounding. The interval is the weekly figure's own.", "per_account": { "a1": { "five_hour_window_pct": 8.9, "signed_interval_pct": [ -29.4, 17.0 ], "signed_pct": -9.1, "weight": 0.3435, "windows_per_week_pct": -16.5 }, "a2": { "five_hour_window_pct": 3.2, "signed_interval_pct": [ -25.7, 8.3 ], "signed_pct": -10.3, "weight": 0.6565, "windows_per_week_pct": -13.0 } }, "percent": 10, "signed_interval_pct": [ -22.0, 4.1 ], "signed_pct": -9.9, "windows_per_week_pct": -14.3 }, "windows_per_week_ratio": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "consistent_with": [ { "description": "the weekly cap falls by the whole measured amount, the five-hour window unchanged", "five_hour_window_change_pct": 0.0, "weekly_cap_change_interval_pct": [ -33.1, -7.95 ], "weekly_cap_change_pct": -21.68 }, { "description": "the five-hour window rises, the weekly cap unchanged", "five_hour_window_change_interval_pct": [ 8.64, 49.47 ], "five_hour_window_change_pct": 27.67, "weekly_cap_change_pct": 0.0 } ], "excluded": { "a3": "readings_only_after_the_change", "a4": "readings_only_after_the_change" }, "method": "each account with readings on both sides against itself: the pooled ratio of five-hour meter movement, each window over its headless inflation (ADR 0001 rule 16), to seven-day meter movement over its own last two certified regimes (tracker/detect.py weighted_regimes), after over before, with an interval from both sides' rounding intervals at their far ends; then a weighted mean of the accounts' log ratios, each weighted by the inverse square of its own log interval's half-width, and the same weighted mean of their interval ends as the combined interval. The fall is one equation in the ratio of the two meters' own budget changes; `consistent_with` lists example splits that reproduce it exactly, not measurements of which one moved. `raw_ratio_after_over_before` and `raw_ratio_fell_pct` are the meter's own ratio on the same sides and weights, a diagnostic: it moves with an account's headless share.", "per_account": { "a1": { "after": { "end": "2026-10-12T23:39:59.560582+00:00", "n_windows": 76, "ratio": 4.7538, "raw_ratio": 4.8402, "raw_sum_five_hour_pct": 818.0, "rounding_interval": [ 4.3239, 5.2595 ], "start": "2026-09-13T21:30:00.476685+00:00", "sum_five_hour_pct": 803.4, "sum_seven_day_pct": 169.0 }, "before": { "end": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "n_windows": 107, "ratio": 6.3254, "raw_ratio": 6.493, "raw_sum_five_hour_pct": 2331.0, "rounding_interval": [ 6.0093, 6.6714 ], "start": "2026-08-15T00:20:00.078325+00:00", "sum_five_hour_pct": 2270.8, "sum_seven_day_pct": 359.0 }, "change_interval_pct": [ -35.19, -12.48 ], "change_pct": -24.85, "ratio_after_over_before": 0.7515, "ratio_interval": [ 0.6481, 0.8752 ], "raw_ratio_after_over_before": 0.7454, "weight": 0.5667 }, "a2": { "after": { "end": "2026-10-13T07:40:00.490711+00:00", "n_windows": 116, "ratio": 4.3429, "raw_ratio": 4.5767, "raw_sum_five_hour_pct": 984.0, "rounding_interval": [ 3.9346, 4.8257 ], "start": "2026-09-14T03:45:24+00:00", "sum_five_hour_pct": 933.7, "sum_seven_day_pct": 215.0 }, "before": { "end": "2026-09-13T22:45:34+00:00", "n_windows": 34, "ratio": 5.2527, "raw_ratio": 6.3947, "raw_sum_five_hour_pct": 972.0, "rounding_interval": [ 4.9075, 5.6421 ], "start": "2026-09-05T10:57:35+00:00", "sum_five_hour_pct": 798.4, "sum_seven_day_pct": 152.0 }, "change_interval_pct": [ -30.26, -1.67 ], "change_pct": -17.32, "ratio_after_over_before": 0.8268, "ratio_interval": [ 0.6974, 0.9833 ], "raw_ratio_after_over_before": 0.7157, "weight": 0.4333 } }, "pooled_all_accounts": { "after": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2", "a3", "a4" ], "end": "2026-10-13T07:40:00.490711+00:00", "n_windows": 355, "ratio": 4.8012, "raw_ratio": 5.4909, "raw_sum_five_hour_pct": 4810.0, "rounding_interval": [ 4.6054, 5.0114 ], "start": "2026-09-05T10:57:35+00:00", "sum_five_hour_pct": 4205.8, "sum_seven_day_pct": 876.0 }, "before": { "accounts": [ "a1" ], "end": "2026-09-05T06:00:00.403811+00:00", "n_windows": 80, "ratio": 6.4711, "raw_ratio": 6.6473, "raw_sum_five_hour_pct": 1941.0, "rounding_interval": [ 6.1294, 6.8473 ], "start": "2026-08-15T00:20:00.078325+00:00", "sum_five_hour_pct": 1889.6, "sum_seven_day_pct": 292.0 }, "ratio_fell_pct": 25.81, "why_not_used": "pools every account's windows in each of the last two pooled regimes, so an account that only has readings after the change moves the after side through account mix; kept for the record" }, "ratio_after_over_before": 0.7832, "ratio_fell_interval_pct": [ 7.95, 33.1 ], "ratio_fell_pct": 21.68, "ratio_interval": [ 0.669, 0.9205 ], "raw_ratio_after_over_before": 0.7324, "raw_ratio_fell_pct": 26.76, "unit": "percent", "windows_unit": "interactive_equivalent" }, "windows_per_week_step": { "after": 4.2755, "after_interval": [ 3.3979, 5.4132 ], "before": 4.7167, "before_interval": [ 3.7728, 5.7308 ], "chart": "windows_per_week", "source": "per_week_regimes" } }, { "announced": { "also_quoted": "In addition to the price drop, we're increasing five-hour usage limits on Pro, Max, Team, and seat-based Enterprise plans.", "announced_change_pct": 20, "date": "2026-09-22", "quote": "We're also raising Pro and Max users' 5-hour limit by 20%.", "scope": "five_hour", "source": "Anthropic email to Max subscribers (the figure); anthropic.com/news/claude-opus-5-5 (the increase, no figure); MacRumors 2026-09-22 (the date)" }, "at": "2026-09-22T19:41:49.479000+00:00", "attribution": "certified_on_both", "certified_on": [ "five_hour_limit", "weekly_limit" ], "change_pct": 19.6, "confirmation": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2", "a3" ], "at": null, "evidence_points": 98, "seven_day_pct": null }, "date": "2026-09-22", "direction": "increased", "evidence_quality": "measured", "family": "opus-5-5", "five_hour_limit_change_interval_pct": [ 10.8, 29.1 ], "five_hour_limit_change_pct": 19.6, "interval_excludes_no_change": true, "interval_pct": [ 10.8, 29.1 ], "kind": "change", "known_date_test": true, "label": "Five-hour limit +19.6%, weekly limit +17.5% (measured)", "legacy_uncertain": false, "method": "direct_on_both_meters", "metric": "five_hour_limit", "model": null, "observation_scope": "account", "onset": { "earliest": "2026-09-22", "latest": "2026-09-22" }, "percent": 20, "provisional": false, "readings": { "five_hour_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_interval_pct": [ -31.9, 46.7 ], "five_hour_window_change_pct": 2.5, "weekly_cap_change_pct": 0.0 }, "weekly_scope": { "five_hour_window_change_pct": 0.0, "weekly_cap_change_interval_pct": [ -31.8, 46.9 ], "weekly_cap_change_pct": -2.4 } }, "rounding_interval_after": null, "rounding_interval_before": null, "scope": "both", "scope_test": { "five_hour_limit_change_interval_pct": null, "five_hour_limit_change_pct": null, "joint_fit_state": "measuring", "reason": "span test: the new family's share of the work varies too little to separate its rate from the limit change: the rate's 95% interval runs 0.82x to 1.33x its base family's, wider than 1.5x end to end or against a search bound", "separable": false, "state": "undetermined", "weekly_limit_change_interval_pct": null, "weekly_limit_change_pct": null }, "state": "measured", "weekly_limit_change_interval_pct": [ 6.0, 30.3 ], "weekly_limit_change_pct": 17.5, "windows_per_week_change_interval_pct": [ -31.8, 46.9 ], "windows_per_week_change_pct": -2.4, "windows_per_week_ratio": 0.9759, "windows_per_week_ratio_interval": [ 0.6815, 1.4694 ] } ], "five_hour_meter": { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2", "a3", "a4" ], "accounts_without_split": [], "basis": "interactive_equivalent", "headless_factor": { "dispersion": 0.427, "interval": [ 1.39, 1.597 ], "status": null, "value": 1.49 }, "method": "The five-hour meter's factor for headless `claude -p` work, measured at every publish from the one-point seven-day steps (`weekly_meter.seven_day_steps`, cleaned as the weekly limit cleans them): a quasi-Poisson regression of the five-hour points crossed in each step on regime (the 14 September cut and every family's first use), account and the step's headless share of credits, where headless means a `claude -p` run's own turns (entrypoint `sdk-cli`, sub-agents not counted). `value` is exp of the share's coefficient, the five-hour meter's movement per credit of headless work over interactive work; its interval is 1.96 standard errors with the fit's own dispersion. `per_account` is the same fit on each account alone. Every five-hour figure (the window, the five-hour change tests, the account lines) counts a stretch's headless tokens at this factor, so it is quoted in interactive-equivalent tokens and credits; the seven-day meter, which treats both kinds of work alike, is not weighted. An account whose collector recorded no headless split is counted as recorded, unweighted.", "model_rates_fitted_at": 1.49, "n_steps": 755, "per_account": { "a1": { "interval": [ 1.403, 4.307 ], "mean_headless_share": 0.039, "n_steps": 215, "value": 2.458 }, "a2": { "interval": [ 1.271, 1.518 ], "mean_headless_share": 0.221, "n_steps": 299, "value": 1.389 }, "a3": { "interval": [ 1.349, 1.681 ], "mean_headless_share": 0.63, "n_steps": 195, "value": 1.506 }, "a4": { "interval": [ 0.8, 1.472 ], "mean_headless_share": 0.196, "n_steps": 46, "value": 1.085 } } }, "generated_at": "2026-10-13T10:31:29.045996+00:00", "history": { "claude-fable-5-1": [ { "api_list_value_per_window": 257.56, "api_value_per_window": 257.56, "date": "2026-07-30", "interpolated": false, "meter_budget_per_window": 172.13, "quality": "measured", "readings": 0, "source": "held", "tokens_per_window": 351810971 }, { "api_list_value_per_window": 257.56, "api_value_per_window": 257.56, "date": "2026-07-31", "interpolated": 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"points": 170, "rate_sources": { "anchor": 3, "measured": 140, "reference_table": 27 }, "series": "credits_per_window", "testable_accounts": 2, "unpriced_models": [] }, "meter_movement_pct": 471.0, "observed_from": "2026-10-06T17:34:33+00:00", "observed_to": "2026-10-13T04:53:59+00:00", "readings": 10, "reset_verified": true, "rounding_relative": 0.1316, "source": "passive", "stretches": 46, "window_pieces": 62 }, "freshness": { "as_of": "2026-10-13T04:53:59+00:00", "stale": false, "stale_after": "2026-10-23T04:53:59+00:00" }, "measured_at": "2026-10-13T04:53:59+00:00", "meter_budget_per_window": 172.13, "probe_effort": "low", "probed_at": null, "quality": { "capture_complete": null, "reasons": [ "capture_completeness_not_verified" ], "status": "conditional", "unpriced_work": false }, "reference_mix": { "as_of": "2026-09-16", "cache_write_duration": "legacy_assumed_5m", "id": "gs-passive-2026-09-16-v1", "kind": "derived_scenario", "source": "token-class shares of every published gs passive stretch in history/gs-passive.json as committed 2026-09-16T16:30Z (2026-09-05..16), the mix the page's token figures used until then" }, "source": "derived_reference_mix", "split": { "cache_read": 0.971307, "cache_write": 0.025173, "input": 3.5e-05, "output": 0.003485 }, "tokens_per_window": 1759054853 } }, "reference": { "as_of": "2026-01-25", "changes_since": [ { "date": "2026-05-06", "date_known": true, "multiplier": 2.0, "quote": "On May 6, 2026, Anthropic announced it had permanently doubled Claude Code's 5-hour rate limits", "scope": "five_hour_window", "source": "explainx.ai timeline", "summary": "Claude Code five-hour limits permanently doubled for Pro, Max, Team and seat-based Enterprise" }, { "date": null, "date_known": false, "from": "2026-05", "multiplier": 1.5, "quote": "the fourth deadline Anthropic has set for this promotion since introducing it in May", "scope": "weekly", "source": "devops.com", "summary": "a temporary +50% on Claude Code weekly limits, extended four times", "until": "2026-09-13" }, { "date": "2026-09-14", "date_known": true, "multiplier": 1.25, "quote": "Starting September 14, we're permanently raising standard weekly limits in Claude Code by 25% for Pro, Max, Team, and seat-based Enterprise plans", "scope": "weekly", "source": "Anthropic on X, quoted by BleepingComputer; recorded in docs/findings-2026-09-20-reconciliation.md", "summary": "weekly limits set to a permanent +25% over the January baseline" } ], "credits_per_week": { "max20": 83333300, "max5": 41666700, "pro": 5000000 }, "credits_per_window": { "max20": 11000000, "max5": 3300000, "pro": 550000 }, "crosspost": "braddelong.substack.com, \"CROSSPOST: SHELLAC\", dated January 25, 2026", "dated": true, "describes": "the plans as they were in January 2026", "name": "Shellac credits table", "note": "a reference to compare a measurement against, never an input to one", "shortfall": { "cut_at": "2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00", "explanation": "the reference table predates the 6 May five-hour doubling and the May and 14 September weekly changes, so its windows per week are not comparable to the measured levels: at the five-hour window doubled and the weekly cap at +50% the same table predicts the `expected_windows_per_week` beside each plan, and the measurement sits above it.", "multipliers_applied": { "five_hour_window": 2.0, "weekly": 1.5 }, "per_plan": { "max20": { "documented_windows_per_week": 7.58, "expected_windows_per_week": 5.6818, "from": "2026-08-15T00:20:00.078325+00:00", "measured_windows_per_week": 6.01, "ratio": 0.7929, "ratio_to_expected": 1.0578, "status": null, "to": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00" }, "max5": { "documented_windows_per_week": 12.63, "expected_windows_per_week": 9.4697, "from": "2026-06-13T01:30:00.625452+00:00", "measured_windows_per_week": 10.86, "ratio": 0.8599, "ratio_to_expected": 1.1468, "status": null, "to": "2026-08-14T16:20:00.059763+00:00" }, "pro": { "documented_windows_per_week": 9.09, "expected_windows_per_week": 6.8182, "from": null, "measured_windows_per_week": null, "ratio": null, "ratio_to_expected": null, "status": "no measured weekly-window regime for pro ending before the cut; its published windows per week are inferred from max20, never measured", "to": null } }, "plans_measured": [ "max5", "max20" ], "ratio_range": [ 0.7929, 0.8599 ], "source": "docs/findings-2026-09-20-reconciliation.md", "status": "explained", "what": "this tracker's measured five-hour windows per week against the reference table's, per plan, for the last regime that ended before the 14 September weekly change" }, "url": "https://she-llac.com/claude-limits", "windows_per_week": { "max20": 7.58, "max5": 12.63, "pro": 9.09 } }, "schema_version": 2, "session_tokens": { "claude-fable-5-1": 5941216, "claude-haiku-4-5": 191635, "claude-opus-4-7": 150459, "claude-opus-4-8": 9796, "claude-opus-5": 5695310, "claude-opus-5-5": 1855507, "claude-sonnet-4-6": 239177, "claude-sonnet-5": 677566 }, "speed": { "accounts": { "a1": { "first_day": "2026-08-20", "last_day": "2026-10-12" }, "a2": { "first_day": "2026-08-23", "last_day": "2026-10-13" }, "a3": { "first_day": "2026-08-30", "last_day": "2026-10-13" }, "a4": { "first_day": "2026-09-21", "last_day": "2026-10-13" } }, "caveats": [ "Some Opus sessions run at about 2.5 times the model's usual speed, with nothing in between. A request in a session whose running median speed is 1.6 times the model's median or more is a fast-session request. They are real measured speeds and are included in every figure, so a day with many of them shows as a jump in the line; fast_session_requests counts them. Why these sessions run faster is not known.", "a1 is one machine's transcripts; a2 to a4 are another machine's. Compare accounts and entrypoints (cli is interactive Claude Code, sdk-cli is claude -p, sdk-ts and sdk-py are the Agent SDK) with like, using by_account_entrypoint.", "Time to first block includes writing the whole first block, which may be a long thinking or tool block, so it is not a time to first token.", "Older days come from a stored history: Claude Code deletes transcripts after 30 days, so a day is computed while its transcripts exist and then kept as it was." ], "input_measure": "time_to_first_block_s", "method": "Each request is timed from Claude Code's transcripts: from the last user line (a prompt or a tool result) written before the response, to the response's last content block. Output speed is the response's output tokens over that time, so it includes waiting in the queue and reading the input; it is a speed as a Claude Code user sees it, not the model's raw decoding speed. Only responses of at least 300 output tokens taking between 1 and 900 seconds are counted, and a day is shown only with at least 30 of them. Figures are the median and interquartile range across requests, per UTC day, pooled from speeds binned 2% apart. Input speed is shown as the median time from that user line to the end of the response's first block, not as a rate. A robust fit of each request's duration against its uncached input and output tokens, per model and day, gave an input rate whose 80% interval was under 1.5 times end to end on only 6 of 87 model-days with 300 or more requests (13 had no upper bound, the median was 2.7 times), and the six tight ones disagreed with each other several-fold. Claude Code sends little uncached input per request (a median of about 1,200 tokens), so the time spent reading it is lost in queueing and output time.", "min_requests": 30, "models": { "claude-fable-5-1": { "by_account": { "a1": [ { "day": "2026-08-28", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 408, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 63.5, "q1": 57.2, "q3": 71.1 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 7.47, "q1": 5.32, "q3": 11.65 } }, { "day": "2026-08-30", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 206, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 72.3, "q1": 64.9, "q3": 79.8 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 6.18, "q1": 4.54, "q3": 9.05 } }, { "day": "2026-09-03", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 922, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 63.2, "q1": 53.5, "q3": 71.9 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 8.63, "q1": 5.67, "q3": 14.23 } }, { "day": "2026-09-04", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 1020, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 65.5, "q1": 57.2, "q3": 73.2 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 6.96, "q1": 5.1, "q3": 9.95 } }, { "day": "2026-09-05", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 460, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 64.1, "q1": 54.1, "q3": 73.8 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 7.0, "q1": 4.74, "q3": 10.35 } }, { "day": "2026-09-06", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 640, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 63.4, "q1": 55.8, "q3": 70.8 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 6.83, "q1": 4.78, "q3": 10.38 } }, { "day": "2026-09-07", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 94, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 65.3, "q1": 58.8, "q3": 73.7 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 5.49, "q1": 4.27, "q3": 7.73 } }, { "day": "2026-09-08", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 390, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 63.5, "q1": 55.4, "q3": 71.1 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 6.43, "q1": 4.7, "q3": 9.85 } }, { "day": "2026-09-09", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 751, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 68.8, "q1": 61.1, "q3": 77.3 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 5.35, "q1": 3.99, "q3": 8.37 } }, { "day": "2026-09-10", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 514, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 69.5, "q1": 60.4, "q3": 79.5 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 6.65, "q1": 4.34, "q3": 9.93 } }, { "day": "2026-09-11", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 80, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 75.0, "q1": 69.3, "q3": 82.4 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 6.24, "q1": 3.84, "q3": 9.95 } }, { "day": "2026-09-12", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 538, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 70.9, "q1": 63.9, "q3": 78.6 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 6.69, "q1": 3.98, "q3": 13.79 } }, { "day": "2026-09-13", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 111, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 73.0, "q1": 66.0, "q3": 81.2 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 6.53, "q1": 4.31, "q3": 10.57 } }, { "day": "2026-09-14", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 594, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 69.6, "q1": 62.8, "q3": 77.9 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 6.12, "q1": 4.04, "q3": 10.73 } }, { "day": "2026-09-15", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 437, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 62.3, "q1": 52.9, "q3": 70.6 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 9.64, "q1": 6.39, "q3": 16.43 } }, { "day": "2026-09-16", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 437, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 66.9, "q1": 58.8, "q3": 75.7 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 6.91, "q1": 4.53, "q3": 10.95 } }, { "day": "2026-09-17", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 87, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 72.9, "q1": 65.2, "q3": 80.1 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 9.33, "q1": 4.97, "q3": 18.1 } }, { "day": "2026-09-18", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 764, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 68.6, "q1": 61.3, "q3": 76.9 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 6.36, "q1": 4.33, "q3": 11.07 } }, { "day": "2026-09-19", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 273, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 71.5, "q1": 65.7, "q3": 77.0 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 7.61, "q1": 4.31, "q3": 14.89 } }, { "day": "2026-09-20", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 524, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 67.2, "q1": 60.2, "q3": 74.7 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 7.96, "q1": 4.95, "q3": 13.74 } }, { "day": "2026-09-21", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 55, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 66.7, "q1": 60.2, "q3": 72.2 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 5.97, "q1": 4.54, "q3": 9.68 } }, { "day": "2026-09-22", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 229, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 65.0, "q1": 56.1, "q3": 71.3 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 10.25, "q1": 6.65, "q3": 17.93 } } ], "a2": [ { "day": "2026-08-23", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 308, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 69.8, "q1": 63.2, "q3": 78.0 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 6.14, "q1": 4.27, "q3": 10.98 } }, { "day": "2026-08-24", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 685, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 66.8, "q1": 60.3, "q3": 74.7 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 7.19, "q1": 5.1, "q3": 11.29 } }, { "day": "2026-08-25", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 540, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 64.6, "q1": 58.4, "q3": 71.9 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 7.48, "q1": 5.05, "q3": 12.24 } }, { "day": "2026-08-26", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 775, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 65.1, "q1": 59.1, "q3": 73.2 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 7.9, "q1": 5.16, "q3": 13.87 } }, { "day": "2026-08-27", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 201, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 62.5, "q1": 55.4, "q3": 68.9 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 9.77, "q1": 6.15, "q3": 16.24 } }, { "day": "2026-08-28", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 89, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 61.2, "q1": 57.2, "q3": 67.8 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 9.33, "q1": 5.76, "q3": 14.13 } }, { "day": "2026-08-29", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 104, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 61.2, "q1": 54.2, "q3": 66.6 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 8.74, "q1": 6.18, "q3": 13.93 } }, { "day": "2026-08-30", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 315, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 64.1, "q1": 58.9, "q3": 70.7 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 9.16, "q1": 5.87, "q3": 15.17 } }, { "day": "2026-08-31", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 542, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 63.9, "q1": 58.1, "q3": 71.1 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 7.93, "q1": 5.59, "q3": 12.83 } }, { "day": "2026-09-01", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 251, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 63.1, "q1": 56.9, "q3": 70.3 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 7.9, "q1": 5.65, "q3": 12.89 } }, { "day": "2026-09-03", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 261, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 70.9, "q1": 64.2, "q3": 78.8 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { "median": 6.95, "q1": 5.02, "q3": 10.79 } }, { "day": "2026-09-04", "fast_session_requests": 0, "n": 1082, "output_tokens_per_s": { "median": 68.3, "q1": 60.7, "q3": 76.1 }, "time_to_first_block_s": { 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"reset_verified": true, "rounding_interval": [ 5.4771, 6.7378 ], "seven_day_pct": 97.0, "source": "passive_paired_deltas", "week_ending": "2026-09-11", "windows": 6.05 }, { "assumed": false, "five_hour_pct": 352.0, "partial": false, "pieces": 30, "quality": "measured", "reasons": [], "reset_verified": true, "rounding_interval": [ 4.4829, 6.071 ], "seven_day_pct": 68.0, "source": "passive_paired_deltas", "week_ending": "2026-09-18", "windows": 5.18 }, { "assumed": false, "five_hour_pct": 330.0, "partial": false, "pieces": 30, "quality": "measured", "reasons": [], "reset_verified": true, "rounding_interval": [ 4.1957, 5.7006 ], "seven_day_pct": 68.0, "source": "passive_paired_deltas", "week_ending": "2026-09-25", "windows": 4.85 }, { "assumed": false, "five_hour_pct": 152.0, "partial": false, "pieces": 30, "quality": "measured", "reasons": [], "reset_verified": true, "rounding_interval": [ 3.366, 6.3235 ], "seven_day_pct": 34.0, "source": "passive_paired_deltas", "week_ending": "2026-10-02", "windows": 4.47 } ], "regimes": [ { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "assumed": false, "end": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "per_account": { "a1": { "end": "2026-09-13T16:30:00.008149+00:00", "start": "2026-08-15T00:20:00.078325+00:00", "windows": 6.3254 }, "a2": { "end": "2026-09-13T22:45:34+00:00", "start": "2026-09-05T10:57:35+00:00", "windows": 5.2527 } }, "pieces": 141, "points": 141, "quality": "bounded", "raw_windows": 6.46, "rounding_interval": [ 5.7621, 6.269 ], "seven_day_pct": 511.0, "source": "passive_paired_deltas_same_accounts", "start": "2026-08-15T00:20:00.078325+00:00", "windows": 6.01 }, { "accounts": [ "a1", "a2" ], "assumed": false, "end": "2026-10-13T07:40:00.490711+00:00", "per_account": { "a1": { "end": "2026-10-12T23:39:59.560582+00:00", "start": "2026-09-13T21:30:00.476685+00:00", "windows": 4.7538 }, "a2": { "end": "2026-10-13T07:40:00.490711+00:00", "start": "2026-09-14T03:45:24+00:00", "windows": 4.3429 } }, "pieces": 207, "points": 192, "quality": "bounded", "raw_windows": 4.69, "rounding_interval": [ 4.2188, 4.8669 ], "seven_day_pct": 384.0, "source": "passive_paired_deltas_same_accounts", "start": "2026-09-13T21:30:00.476685+00:00", "windows": 4.52 } ], "regimes_pooled_all_accounts": [ { "assumed": false, "end": "2026-09-05T06:00:00.403811+00:00", "pieces": 80, "points": 80, "quality": "bounded", "raw_windows": 6.65, "rounding_interval": [ 6.1294, 6.8473 ], "seven_day_pct": 292.0, "source": "passive_paired_deltas", "start": "2026-08-15T00:20:00.078325+00:00", "windows": 6.47 }, { "assumed": false, "end": "2026-10-13T07:40:00.490711+00:00", "pieces": 397, "points": 355, "quality": "bounded", "raw_windows": 5.49, "rounding_interval": [ 4.6054, 5.0114 ], "seven_day_pct": 876.0, "source": "passive_paired_deltas", "start": "2026-09-05T10:57:35+00:00", "windows": 4.8 } ], "unit": "interactive_equivalent", "unit_method": "Windows per week in interactive-equivalent units (ADR 0001 rule 16): each five-hour meter window's movement (`raw_five_hour_pct`) over its headless inflation, 1 + (factor - 1) x the window's headless share of credits, with the factor fitted at this publish (`five_hour_meter.headless_factor`). The share is read from the account's seven-day steps that overlap the window's five hours, each counted by the part of its span inside them, valued as the factor's own fit values them; a window no step overlaps reads the stretches the same way; a window neither overlaps (`headless_share` null) is counted as recorded, unweighted. `five_hour_pct`, `windows` and `rounding_interval` are in that unit; the meter's own figures are kept as `raw_five_hour_pct`, `raw_windows` and `raw_rounding_interval`, a diagnostic. The seven-day meter is not weighted.", "weekly": [ { "assumed": false, "five_hour_pct": 312.0, "n": 8, "partial": false, "raw_windows": 6.5, "rounding_interval": [ 5.8647, 7.2649 ], "seven_day_pct": 48.0, "source": "passive_paired_deltas", "week_ending": "2026-08-16", "windows": 6.5 }, { "assumed": false, "five_hour_pct": 295.1, "n": 24, "partial": false, "raw_windows": 6.72, "rounding_interval": [ 5.36, 7.8969 ], "seven_day_pct": 46.0, "source": "passive_paired_deltas", "week_ending": "2026-08-23", "windows": 6.42 }, { "assumed": false, "five_hour_pct": 498.4, "n": 25, "partial": false, "raw_windows": 6.94, "rounding_interval": [ 5.787, 7.3134 ], "seven_day_pct": 77.0, "source": "passive_paired_deltas", "week_ending": "2026-08-30", "windows": 6.47 }, { "assumed": false, "five_hour_pct": 1237.3, "n": 36, "partial": false, "raw_windows": 6.24, "rounding_interval": [ 5.5733, 6.1823 ], "seven_day_pct": 211.0, "source": "passive_paired_deltas", "week_ending": "2026-09-06", "windows": 5.86 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